Sports is so, so difficult.  It really takes a lot for a team to win a championship.  The right draft picks, the right trades and free agent signings, all the while developing the right winning culture organization-wide.  And seldom do all these elements come together for most franchises. The chance for glory is fleeting for most fan bases.  

And that’s unfortunately exponentially so for mid-market franchises.  

Since 2000, these are the teams that have won a World Series. 9 of those 13 teams are in one of the top 10 media markets (and Arizona/Phoenix just misses at number 11).

Yankees
Diamondbacks
Angels
Marlins
Red Sox
White Sox
Cardinals
Phillies
Giants
Royals
Cubs
Astros
Dodgers

The NFL should be a notable exception as most Super Bowl winners since 2000 (even not counting the 6 from New England and 2 from New York) are from mid-market cities.  It begs to wonder if the relative parity in the NFL is a big reason why the NFL’s TV ratings do so much better than other major sports.  Or maybe it’s the thirst for violence. (But I digress.)  

The NBA has been the stingiest to the smaller markets.  Between 1980 and 1999 when the Spurs won their first in the shortened lockout season, only the Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Bulls, and Rockets claimed a title.  And until 2015 when the Warriors won, only the Spurs, Heat, and Mavs could be added to that list.  Nine franchises in 35 years.  Super teams really have been the norm in the NBA and have had a major influence in how players and franchises act in tandem with hopes of creating one.  That’s what Jerry West and Red Auerbach were doing in the 80’s.   

All of which brings me to my point. The NBA has been much maligned for the casual fan.  Superstars leaving to play together really stifles the competition. Only a few teams seem to have a shot each year.  The best chances for smaller markets are drafting and holding onto a superstar while attracting the right complementary talent.  A very frustrating task seldom meeting ultimate success.  But there’s been some positive change to that negative trend recently.  For every superstar that teams up together, some up & coming ones are choosing to stick with their own teams, even in smaller markets.  

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Trae Young, and Devin Booker (and soon to be Luka Doncic) chose to stay with their original franchises and signed long term contracts.  They chose loyalty to the organization with the promise they’d be put in position to contend for all the marbles.  The Bucks broke the rules trying to improve around Giannis but did land All Star point guard Jrue Holiday.  The Suns surprisingly traded for max contract Chris Paul to mentor their young superstar when just a year before many thought Paul was entering the twilight of his career (made first all-star team since 2016 last year).  The Hawks were one of the off-season’s biggest spenders in free agency, signing away the guy the Bucks could’ve had and making it known it was playoffs or bust in Trae Young’s 3rd year.  

Enter the L.A. Clippers, perhaps the last “superteam” remaining.  They were the big market, big pocket, balls to the wall franchise that went all in last year with the surprising signing of Kawhi Leonard and trade for Paul George.  Then they failed spectacularly - as is Clippers tradition - in the bubble last year.  Replacing Doc Rivers with Ty Lue had them lead the league in 3-point and free throw shooting this year.  Now ironically without Kawhi “King of Load Management” Leonard, another major factor in the casual fan’s shirking of the NBA, they’ll be going up against Devin Booker and a young and exciting Phoenix Suns team that is missing Chris Paul indefinitely while in Covid-19 protocols.  

In the East, Giannis and the Bucks, despite trying their hardest not to, got past the hobbled Brooklyn Nets, the super team du jour.  They’ll be met by the surprising, upstart Hawks who may have finally ended the Process in Philadelphia.  A favorite strategy of teams trying to compete with super teams was tanking: stringing together a few years of terrible records to build a core of young talent through high draft picks.  The Sixers were famous for it and the Lakers used that strategy to acquire the talent traded for Anthony Davis and a title in 2020.  But of the Sixers’ two recent Number One overall picks, meant to signal the end of the process and the beginning of a dynasty, neither could shoot. 

The Sixers traded Markelle Fultz to the Magic in 2019 but perhaps should’ve traded their other Number One pick, Ben Simmons. An all-world playmaker and defender who shoots with the wrong hand and shot 25/73 (34%) from the free throw line in these playoffs.  Simmons passing up a dunk in the waning minutes of game 7 and drawing the ire of Joel Embiid makes it almost certain that he too is on his way out of Philly.  The interesting thing about Simmons is that he can do pretty much everything else at an elite level and is decent offensively near the rim.  If he develops even a decent mid-range shot (and improved free throw shooting), he becomes one of the best all around players in the world.  But he’d be a costly gamble being in the first year of a 5 year 177 million dollar contract. 

The Clippers and Suns have never won a championship while the Hawks and Bucks last won in 1958 and 1971 respectively.  All great stories but even with superstars on these teams, NBA executives probably dread these matchups.  The spin is that these superstars teaming up in big markets creates the matchups TV (and therefore NBA) executives love. Big markets and the biggest superstars.  How could advertisers not want that?  But I’m getting the sense that casual fans are liking this unexpected foursome, especially since it means no LeBron and no Brooklyn.  It gives fans hope when the same faces aren’t in it every year.  It’s exciting for fans to see new teams and new players win.  Of all the guys left in the playoffs, only 3 have ever won a title (and they all play for the Clippers).

And while true that a Bucks-Clippers matchup would have significantly lesser ratings than Lakers-Nets, I think we’re starting to realize that TV ratings are overrated anymore.  An estimated 25% of viewership is via streaming and interestingly enough, Nielsen is starting just this year to track streaming.  But enough nerding out, on to the games.  You would think Milwaukee would take quick care of Atlanta if not for their tendency to defeat themselves and a coach who seems to not understand how basketball works.  The Hawks have made a great run but Giannis et al. is too tall an order.  In the West, so much hinges on Kawhi’s knee but the Clippers won’t be able to fall behind on a determined and well-coached Suns team.  Chris Paul should be back soon (he was vaccinated) and he and Devin Booker should be able to provide in the clutch for a really fun to watch Suns team.  Bucks in 5. Suns in 6. 

One last note to add and an important annual event for fans of small market teams.  The NBA Draft Lottery is this Tuesday, June 22nd at 8:30pm (ESPN).  Here’s the odds.