Bp On The AL Division Round

Game Ones:

Tampa Bay/Tyler Glasnow (6-1 /1.78) at Houston/Justin Verlander (21-6/2.58)

Minnesota Twins/Jose Berrios (14-8/3.58) at New York/James Paxton (15-6/3.82)

Let me preface this by saying I really like this Rays team. What they’ve done after trimming their payroll by 16 million in the off-season is impressive. Tampa has a dynamic young line up, some nice starters, and a great bullpen. That said, they have no chance in this series.

I’ll lay these two facts on you and you need not know anything else. 1. Astros starters lead baseball in strikeouts. 2. The Astros have struck out fewer times than any other club. They do everything right. Unlike a lot of teams, they don’t sell out for dingers. They do however hit the ball hard, take their walks, and run well. If they launch a few bombs along the way that’s fine.

Verlander and Garrett Cole both give up home runs, but they don’t walk anyone. In game three they hit you with Zack Greinke and then back to Verlander again if they haven’t already swept you away.

I’ll take Houston in a three game sweep.

All season the Twins and Yankees traded spots in a record setting home runs season. In the end the Twins won that battle 307 to 306. I can hardly argue that this series won’t be a battle of the long ball.

Game one will go a long way to tell us who’s going to win this series. Paxton struggled for a good chunk of the season, but really got it all together down the stretch. Of concern for New York however is that Big Maple left his final start of the year at Texas after just an inning with what was called nerve irritation. This Twins line up is brutal on left handed pitchers. There’s power up and down the order, and in Yankee stadium we all know how that can go.

No secrets about the Bombers either. Again…. 307 to 306… . Berrios is a good pitcher, but he’s not a great pitcher. That holds true especially on the road. Berrios gives up enough fly ball contact for us to see real peril for him tonight.

Of all the series, this one could be nuts scoring wise. The Yanks are finally able to field the roster they envisioned. That said we don’t know how healthy Edwin Encanarcion and Giancarlo Stanton really are. Both benches have been good this year too. In the end this series will come down to two great bullpens and which one does the better job.

I’ll take the Yankees in five, but I don’t feel that confident. This one could go either way.

Bp On The NL Division Round

The National League Divisional rounds begin this evening with the Cardinals traveling to Atlanta and the Nationals drawing the Dodgers in LA.

Game Ones:

St. Louis/Miles Mikolas (9-14 4.16) vs Atlanta/Dallas Keuchel (8-8 3.75)

Washington/Patrick Corbin (14-7 3.25 vs Los Angeles/Walker Beuhler (14-4 3.25)

Let’s start with the latter, and I’ll make this real simple. If the Nationals do not steal game one, I give them no chance in the series. This L.A. team is loaded, but they are tougher against right handed pitching. With lefty Patrick Corbin going in game one this is the only advantage Washington can possibly press.

The Nationals are a good offensive club, but the Dodgers are better and can attack you one to eight in the order. The Nationals’ top three starters are better than L.A.’s, and they have to be in this series. The Nats’ bullpen is a liability. Max Scherzer certainly has to pitch better when we see him in game three.

L.A. was smart to go with Beuhler in game one over Clayton Kershaw. We all know Kershaw has had his post season issues, but for whatever reason most of Beuhler’s bad starts have come on the road this season. Better to get him off the ground at Dodger Stadium.

This Dodger team is fun to watch because of the home grown kids they keep bringing up. It’ll be interesting to see how much Gavin Lux and Will Smith play in this series. Smith will be catching in game one which shows you how much they think of the rookie despite his September struggles at the dish.

Give me L.A. in four games.

As for the Cardinals and Braves this one is more evenly matched. I was impressed by the Cardinals getting it together, getting hot, and winning the NL Central. When you look at their roster it just doesn’t look like a playoff team.

Paul Goldschmidt’s first season in St. Lou was a disappointment. Paul DeJong hit 30 homers, but that doesn’t seem like such a big achievement any more. Those bombs came with a low average. Matt Carpenter was just plain awful, and lost regular playing time to interesting rookie Tommy Edman. My biggest beef with St. Louis is how right handed they are. In the playoffs, with how pitching can control games, they don’t have enough answers from the left side of the plate.

This Atlanta club is really good. If you know only one young superstar in the game, make it Ronald Acuna Jr. He can do it all. Freddy Freeman was awesome even when the Braves had nothing around him. Josh Donaldson was thought to be washed up at third, but he’s had a very nice, and mostly healthy year. The Braves are just built so much better for the playoffs. They can balance you up from the left side with solid big league hitters Nick Markakis and Matt Joyce and then draw on the bench from the other side with former Red Adam Duvall. (Interesting that another former Red Billy Hamilton made their team in this series too…… Late inning pinch runner no doubt. Could be the difference you never know!)

I think I like the Cardinals staff better in this one. Mikolas is entirely dependent on his fielders, but Jack Flaherty has been as good as any starter in the game this year. Dakota Hudson is an extreme ground baller who has gotten extreme results. Adam Wainwright ended his 2019 very well.

As for Atlanta Keuchel is the left handed version of Mikolas, and is better at it. What are we going to get from Mike Foltynewicz? I have no clue. I like Mike Soroka and Max Fried, but they are very young.

I’m not going to say much about the bullpens except that if either team can finally get that area settled it could provide them the advantage they need to get through.

Give me the Braves in five games.

The Major League Baseball Post Season: Wild Card Round - by Brian Phillips

6pm EST October 2: AL Wild Card Line ups/Rosters out. Thoughts below.

After a year of record setting dingers, another high water mark in strikeouts, and embarrassing futility at the bottom of the American League we’ve reached baseball’s post season. Now the game changes. (For instance the Yankees don’t get to play the Orioles any more.)

One thing we’ll recognize is the creative deployment of pitching staffs. Openers aren’t just for the Rays any more. With all their injuries the Yankees were even doing it fairly often as the season wore on. It’s no accident that the A’s, Rays, and Brewers all made it to October. They’ve been leaders in how bullpen arms can be dispatched at any time and more efficiently. They’ve also been brutally honest in accepting what their starters can and cannot do. When Milwaukee got red hot (after losing Christian Yelich no less!) their starters were lucky get two trips through an opponents order.

We’ll be adding to our coverage here as we move through the playoffs. We’ll start with Tuesday and Wednesday’s Wild Card match ups. Remember! It’s one game. Win or go home.

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

Tuesday October 1

Brandon Woodruff (11-3 3.62) vs Max Scherzer (11-7 2.92)

Woodruff was just returning from injury in September so don’t expect him to go any longer than the first three. The Brewers would be happy to let him wind it out 100% one time through the order. After that we’ll likely see an improving Jordan Lyles for a couple of frames followed by blow away closer Josh Hader at most any time. Without Yelich the Brewers have to keep this close. I don’t like them against a power righty like Scherzer. They can strike out at a high clip. Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain are dinged up already, and not good against righties.

The key to beating Scherzer is hunting for home runs. He will give them up. If you can grab a walk or a cheap hit, a bomb or two can be lingering behind those. Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas, and impressive rookie Keston Hiura will be looking to jump a Scherzer heater. The X-factor is young lead off hitter Trent Grisham. He’s had his moments this season.

As for the Nationals, this is an impressive line up. Keep an eye on two hole hitter Adam Eaton. He’s quietly pumped up his power profile the last couple of months. With Trea Turner in front of him, and mashers Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto and the always reliable Howie Kendrick 3, 4, and 5 this is a club that can jump out to an early lead and sit on it.

Washington’s biggest weakness is it’s bullpen, but with an all or nothing Wild Card game it’s all hands. If Scherzer runs into trouble (and he has had back trouble this season) we could see Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin both appearing.

I like the Nats at home, but this is baseball. These Wild Card games can be strange.

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A’s

Wednesday October 2

Charlie Morton (16-6 3.05) vs Sean Manaea (4-0 1.21)

With all the above about bull penning we might just have to forget all that when we look at this pitching match up. Morton has been great all year, and on paper any way he should be able to navigate an A’s team that sees most of their thump come from the right side of the plate. That said, when Morton has struggled (and that’s not very often) it’s been on the road. Oakland will put the ball in play so I don’t expect Morton to just mow them down.

As for Manaea he returned from injury late in the season and looked very good. His underlying numbers don’t quite add up to a sterling 1.21 ERA, but the A’s have to be pleased with what that they’ve seen. Given a choice you’d rather start a good lefty against Tampa if only to mitigate stud outfielder Austin Meadows a bit. (Why the Pirates traded him I have no idea.)

6pm EST: Rosters And Line Ups Now Out

The biggest surprises come on the Tampa side. Former Indian Yandy Diaz is leading off and playing first. He was out for weeks with a bum foot and only returned at the end of the year to DH. The Rays must feel he’s ready to go, and Diaz is certainly a plus glove if he’s healthy. One time Columbus Clipper Jesus Aguilar is also on the roster if Diaz doesn’t hold up. Rookie Michael Brosseau starts at second and bats 9th over Daniel Robertson. He’s shown some pop against lefties this year. If need be Joey Wendle is a good choice to pinch hit and play second or third should the A’s go to a righty. I can’t wait to see left handed hitter Matthews face Manaea. Should be fun to watch.

The Rays have 10 pitchers on the roster tonight and in case Morton falters I like them to look at Ryan Yarbrough before Blake Snell. Snell’s injury marred 2019 had him coming back displaying some of his old wildness. Tyler Glasnow could certainly give them three solid innings as well.

Over on the Oakland side Bob Melvin is opting for experience over interesting rookies. Robbie Grossman bats 8th in left over Seth Brown. Jurickson Profar hits 6th at second over Sheldon Neuse. Four of the first five hitters hit from the right, but all are dangerous. If I had a vote for AL MVP it may well have gone to Short stop Marcus Semien, who has had an amazing all around year. Matt Olson is the biggest power danger for Morton in the four hole. DH Khris Davis has had hand problems all year, and just hasn’t been himself. Still, he’s got that lightning strike power.

Oakland has tapped 11 pitchers for this game. Perhaps this is an acknowledgement that Manaea is not that far removed from a long IL stint. Jesus Luzardo recently returned from suspension. If a long man is needed they could well turn to him.

I like Oakland at home 5-4.

Strange and Bold MLB Predictions, 2019 - by Brian Phillips

The best day of the year is here! Opening Day! The Pencilstorm staff will be hunkered down at the world famous Bier Stube on High in time for 1 pm first pitch. Last year they had free hot dogs too!

Before the 2019 season unfurls itself over the next six months allow me to get some strange and bold predictions down:

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Three years after a World Championship the 2004 D-Backs won just 51 games. The 2019 Arizona club won't be quite that putrid, but they won't win more than 65 games either.

Atlanta Braves

Weary of his weak bat the Braves bench and then demote Dansby Swanson by June in favor of Johan Carmargo.

Chicago Cubs

With his bum shoulder healed Kris Bryant returns to his MVP form hitting over .300 with 32 plus bombs and 110 plus RBI.

Cincinnati Reds

Often compared to Joey Votto for his superior plate skills, a healthy Jesse Winker logs an all-star campaign and ends up with across the board better numbers than the Reds' first baseman.

Colorado Rockies

With his new plate approach Ryan McMahon hits his way to an NL Rookie Of The Year award.

Los Angeles Dodgers

A broken down Clayton Kershaw only makes 10 starts for the Dodgers.

Miami Marlins

Trevor Richards makes 33 starts and finishes top 10 in Cy Young voting.

Milwaukee Brewers

Realizing Mike Moustakas is a terrible second baseman the Brewers rush #1 prospect Keston Hiura to the show by mid summer.

New York Mets

Oft injured outfielder Yoenis Cespedes does not play in a single 2019 game.

Philadelphia Phillies

Shifted to death, and spooked by his mega contract, Bryce Harper is booed mercilessly when he finishes April hitting .160.

Pittsburgh Pirates

His efforts to elevate the ball paying off, Josh Bell launches 27 home runs.

San Diego Padres

With an exciting influx of great young talent and behind newly signed Manny Machado, the Padres contend into September for a playoff spot.

San Francisco Giants

The Yankees see Greg Bird injured again, and Luke Voit is exposed with every day at bats. New York swings a deal with the Giants to acquire Brandon Belt for prospects. Belt hits 15 home runs for the Yankees in August and September.

St. Louis Cardinals

In the thick of the playoff hunt the Cards realize they can no longer afford to have Dexter Fowler in the every day line up. Fowler is DFA'd and Tyler O'Neill becomes an outfield regular.

Washington Nationals

While Bryce Harper struggles all season young phenom Juan Soto is in the running for NL MVP.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

The Vegas over/under is 59.5 at last check. This club will win no more than 40 games.

Boston Red Sox

Going into the season without an established closer the Sox turn to David Price by the All Star break.

Chicago White Sox

Eloy Jimenez has a better year than Vlad Jr and wins the AL Rookie of the Year.

Cleveland Indians

Finding themselves 5 games back of the Twins at the deadline the Tribe ship Corey Kluber to the contending Padres for outfield prospects.

Detroit Tigers

For the Tigers it's a long year, but a mostly healthy Miggie makes one last run at a batting title.

Houston Astros

Justin Verlander misses two months after injuring his back having sex with wife Kate Upton.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals run so much Billy Hamilton is only third on the team in steals as he loses playing time with his continued struggles at the plate.

Los Angeles Angels

A shell of his former self and with Justin Bour enjoying a surprisingly productive season, Albert Pujols is DFA'd and asked to take a position in the front office. Refusing that offer he is traded to the Cardinals for a single A relief pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

The surprising Twins win the AL Central by five games over the Tribe and then lose four straight to the Astros in the division round. A healthy Justin Verlander pitches a shut out in game one.

New York Yankees

Miguel Andujar's defense becomes such a liability that the Yanks ship him back to triple A and acquire Kyle Seager from the Mariners.

Oakland Athletics

Never able to get their ragged pitching staff right the A's finish third behind the Astros and Angels.

Seattle Mariners

In a wholesale sell-off Seager isn't the only one traded. Edwin Encanarcion and Jay Bruce are also dealt for prospects.

Tampa Bay Rays

Fueled by young stars Blake Snell, Brandon Lowe and Willie Adames along with a career year from Tommy Pham, the Rays take the second wild card and shock the Red Sox in the wild card game.

Texas Rangers

Joey Gallo reaches a new career high in batting average by hitting .212.

Toronto Blue Jays

With the collective bargaining agreement looming and players concerned about a possible salary cap, Vladimir Guererro Junior signs a ten year $200 million dollar deal with the Jays.

NFL Conference Championship Picks and NFL Dumpster Dive - by Brian Phillips

I hope you haven’t been betting my picks. Jesus, what a mess.

1. I forgot to never fade the Patriots at home…. especially when they have two weeks to prepare. It was over but quick. How great did Tom Brady look! Grrrr.

2. The Colts’ performance baffled me. That said I think we’re learning that the Chiefs are improving on defense and especially at home.

3. I was on the right side for the Saints and Rams, but I missed how those games went by a long shot.

Oh well, to hell with all that. My role here is to mine some great YouTube videos involving our combatants for this weekend’s conference title games.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Sunday January 20, 2019

This may seem like a dull Rams/Saints game on a random Sunday in 1978 and you would be right. The gold is in the commercial content I found picking up in the third quarter tied at 3-3.

Right off the jump we get the end of a Ford commercial. Before you buy a 1979 Pinto you should see this.

Fuck yeah! I want one too! Not so fast. That $3700 sticker price advertised in’ 78 is over $14,000 bucks today. I did however locate one for $850. It may have been sitting in a field for a minute.

Here’s the broadcast.

Hank Stram was on the color for CBS. Such a character, and not long from his final coaching gig at the helm of these same hapless Saints. (Hapless was a popular sports term for bad teams in my youth.) This will give you a great overview into the man and it will cost you no “coin of the realm.”

Not long after the Pinto spot we find a promo for a Kristy McNichol CBS TV movie called “Like Mom, Like Me.” Near as I can figure they’re both learning about their touchie feelies, and mom is probably screwing the not as good looking guy from the show Emergency. They used to make TV movies that would air once or twice and disappear forever. Anyway, this is a football game. Seems like they’re missing their target audience.

Okay fuck this game. At the 4:55 mark they reminded me my Seahawks were beating the snot out of the Raiders 24-0 and look at this! The late great Charlie Jones and Len Dawson were on the call from the Kingdome. You remember Len Dawson don’t you!

We pick it up just before the second half kick off with the Hawks up 21-0.

We think of the Raiders of that era as a machine, but they were merely pretty good in 78. The Hawks meanwhile were on their way to a 9-7 mark and the franchise’s first ever winning season.

Ok gotta move along. I’ll enjoy more of this one later. Always fun to kick Raider ass back in the day.

My pick: Saints 31 Rams 27

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday January 20, 2019

My search for meaningful Patriots/Chiefs TV footage from back in the day has been fruitless so I’m going to go in a different direction.

The Chiefs have been so good this season it’s easy to forget they haven’t been in this position in a generation. January 23, 1994…. It did not go well.

Man I miss Dick Enberg. Chiefs fan does not miss Marty Schottenheimer.

To find Kansas City’s last win in this spot we have to go all the way back to the 10th and final AFL Championship game on January 4, 1970.

This is pretty amazing stuff. Posted last fall is the radio broadcast married with whatever game footage they could find.

The Chiefs would prevail that day 17-7 and go on to easily defeat the Vikings in the Super Bowl.

It’s easy to forget that the New England Patriots were not always an automatic entrant into the title game. After winning an AFL playoff game in 1963 (see last week’s post) the Pats wouldn’t find post season success again until 1985. They beat the Jets, Raiders, and Dolphins to qualify for Super Bowl 20 only to get swamped by the suffocating 1985 Bears 46-10. What do we remember about that game?

At any rate it was a good run for that Pats team led by quarterback Tony Eason and a with a great offensive line . As big a dick as he is Craig James was a really good back.

(Bonus at the 20 minute mark below. A VCR commercial. We’ve come a long way. And thank God for obsessive home recorders. There’s so much outstanding content floating around in the ether. Great for a long winter’s night.)

My Pick: Patriots 35 Chiefs 32

Bp Divisional Round You Tube Dumpster Dive - by Brian Phillips

Well crap. I went 1-3 last week! Why? 1. The Chargers learned a lot from their first go at the Ravens. 2. The run wasn’t working, but the Seahawks didn’t let Russell Wilson go out and win the game for them. 3. Nick Foles can’t keep doing this can he? Also, “doink!”

Oh well. Gotta shake off the loser dust and more importantly find some cool throwback You Tube video so you have something to do at half time.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday January 12, 2019

Holy crap! Look what I found! The entire second ever Monday Night Football telecast from September 28, 1970. It was week two of the merged NFL and AFL. Keith Jackson, Howard Cosell and “Dandy Don” Meredith on the call. At the six minute mark is a real Marlboro TV ad. Cigarette ads had already been outlawed earlier in 1970. The ban would take effect the following year. I’m betting Marlboro bought a lot of T.V. time while they still could.

Speaking of legends and cigarettes this is Len Dawson vs Johnny Unitas. Dawson was coming off a Super Bowl where he smoked at half time, downed a warm Fresca, and then beat the Vikings 23-7.

I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of today’s pampered professional athlete. Fucking Dawson pulled up his own rusty chair, popped a soda loaded with cancer-causing Saccharin using Buck Buchanan’s teeth, and blazed up a heater from a pack he had hidden in his shoulder pads.

I love the pre-game interview where Johnny Unitas goes into unimaginable detail on his bum knee and exactly how the Chiefs could fuck him up during the game. Can you imagine Tom Brady answering that question?

My Pick: Colts 38 Chiefs 35

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

January 12, 2019

This seems like perhaps the easiest match up to find on You Tube from back in the day. In the ‘70’s both of those clubs were powerhouses. Before I do that though I want to show you a different Rams playoff game I found last weekend: The Mud Bowl!

The LA Coliseum was a swamp. You’ll never see this again. Drainage technology is just too advanced now. As an aside it’s also really cool to hear Vin Skully do football and reference a game from 1949 in the opening. Hell, why not, he was there! The Vikings would win the game 14-7 despite quarterback Fran Tarkenton sitting out with an injury. His understudy Bob Lee was actually born here in Columbus and was a proud 1968 17th round draft pick out of Pacific. (A school that no longer has a football team.) Thank God the draft doesn’t last that long any more. Cripes!

Speaking of Vin he was behind the mic two years later for one of the biggest plays in Rams history. Vince Ferragamo to Billy Waddy as 9-7 L.A. stunned the mighty Cowboys on the road. The Rams would make it all the way to the Super Bowl before losing to the Steelers.

Dig the now illegal cut block at the :54 second mark. ‘70’s guys did not give a shit about your knees. Not that it matters to Randy White, who jumped up in a vain attempt to swat that fateful pass anyway.

My Pick: Rams 28 Cowboys 24

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Sunday January 13, 2019

Damn, did I have a hard time finding something cool connecting these two…. until…. I found a three minute highlight film of the 1963 AFL Championship. Not that exciting actually as the heavily favored Chargers crushed the 7-6-1 Pats 51-10.

My Pick: Chargers 34 Patriots 30

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Sunday January 13, 2019

Not easy to connect these two either until you get to their 1992 Wild Card playoff match up. What a bummer for the Saints. They went 12-4 that season, but finished 2nd to the 14-2 49ers in the NFC West. (Yup, the Saints were in the west.)

Randall Cunningham and the Eagles scored 26 points in the fourth to beat New Orleans going away 36-20. It would be another 8 years before the Saints would finally win their first ever playoff game.

My pick: Saints 35 Eagles 23