Bucks Travel to Happy Valley for rare noon matchup: Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, what’s up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba? 

Baver: It’s hard for me to not believe what my own eyes saw against Iowa. I saw an Ohio St offense that clearly looked better after Njigba left the game. Coincidence? Maybe, but I don’t think so. I wonder how much of the Iowa practice week was spent working Njigba back in, with thoughts that he was ready to roll? Over the first half of the season without JSN, this Buckeye offense was at worst the 2nd best offense in the country. And after Njigba left the Iowa game, the OSU offense seemed more comfortable with the Marvin/Egbuka/Fleming trio that has hit the big-time.

On top of the physical toll the hamstring has taken on JSN, I am also left wondering about his confidence. I tend to doubt Njigba fumbles the ball he did against Iowa if he wasn’t overwhelmed with what this injury has reduced him to. Maybe Njigba plays tomorrow, but I tend to doubt it. Is it possible JSN calls it quits to get healthy, and to focus on the NFL draft like an injured-Nick Bosa did in 2018? I would think that is a possibility right now.

Colin: In related news, are we one WR injury away from our team’s greatest strength disappearing? 

Baver: Not disappearing, but let’s not even think about losing Marvin with the year he is having.

Colin: In related, related news, can our running game carry us in a bad weather game vs Penn State, Illinois or gulp… Michigan?

Baver: TreVeyon has been coming up lame at some point in about every game, which is quite worrisome. Arizona St transfer Chip Trayanum is a guy the coaches want in the two-deep at LB, but he has been moved to TB because of depth concerns. Still, the problems running the football against Iowa I think will provide this offensive staff with some good teaching moments.

Colin: Moving to defensive of the ball, have you ever seen such a dramatic turnaround in a unit with basically the same players from 2021? 

Baver: It’s far better, no doubt. But I do caution fans from getting too far ahead of themselves here. These are OSU’s opponents’ total offense rankings after 8 weeks: Toledo #65, Wisconsin #72, Notre Dame #77, Arkansas St #102, Michigan St #104, Rutgers #113, Iowa #131.

Colin: Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg has gone from the worst player on the field to the best player on the field in just 11 months. Has this ever happened before?

Baver: Not to the extent of the transformation that Eichenberg has made. So much of the “this guy is too slow” talk that you hear all too often relates to young defenders having to spend extra time thinking things through. Eichenberg isn’t having to over-think things anymore, and it’s made all the difference in the world. What a great story.

Colin: The Big Ten West is a disaster and the East isn’t much better. Is it already a Big 2, little 12 battle between OSU and Michigan in October? 

Baver: It’s a two-game season…this Saturday, and Michigan. If it’s OSU out of the East, they will be close to a 3-touchdown favorite over the West champ in Indy.

Colin: What worries you about the Buckeyes moving forward? 

Baver: Not playing enough good offenses in the Big Ten to push this defense harder than they are getting pushed right now. That, and staying relatively healthy at the skill positions from here on out on offense.

Colin: It’s hard not to think about the CFP. Are there matchups for the Buckeyes we would want to avoid? 

Baver: The prevailing thought is that Ohio State’s weakest position is cornerback. If Tennessee were to sneak in the CFP and face Ohio State, that’s a UT offense that could potentially torch OSU’s defense. Hendon Hooker is really, really good. And the Vols, like Ohio St, have been playing without their #1 WR (Cedric Tillman), for some time now. And Tillman should be back in early November.

But when it comes right down to it, despite the Vols upset of Bama, I still think it’s Ohio St, Ga & Bama occupying tier #1 in CFB. And I don’t think any of those three teams is that much better or that much worse than the other two. So, while I don’t see obvious matchup problems for Ohio St vs Georgia or the Tide, I think the worst news for an OSU playoff team would be a path that required the Buckeyes to have beat BOTH of those teams. That’s a tall task in my opinion.

Colin: Is this Penn State game causing you any worry? Give us your thoughts on the Nits…

Baver: It’s causing some anxiety; that’s for sure. Penn State has covered the Vegas number vs Ohio St in 5 of the last 6 games. Since Penn State’s upset of a #2 ranked Buckeye team in 2016, Penn State’s 5 losses from ’17 through ’21 were by an average of 7 pts per game. Last year’s game saw Ohio St up only 27-24 heading into the 4th quarter. Penn St brings their A game vs the Bucks pretty much every year, and I expect more of the same Saturday.

As a 6th year senior, Sean Clifford is finally playing at high level, with his INTs down considerably. And he is a far better QB when he plays in Beaver Stadium. The true frosh RB duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is nice one. They also have a solid 1-2 punch with Parker Washington & transfer Michael Tinsley at WR, while TE Brenton Strange has become a nice receiving target as well. But the Nitwits OL is a middle-of the road unit in the Big Ten, at best.

PSU has a solid D, but not quite at Iowa’s level. Michigan torched their run D to the tune of 400+ yards, which I didn’t see coming. DT PJ Mustipher is their top lineman, while CB Joey Porter and safety Ji’Ayir Brown may be the best in the Big Ten at their respective positions.

The Buckeyes better be focused, or this one could be more interesting than we want it to be. Still, I’ve got Ohio State winning this one….I’ve got it Ohio State 31 Penn St 23.

Go Bucks!

Moment of Truth - Bucks Face Clemson in Battle of Unbeatens: Colin & Baver Q&A

Colin: Clemson hasn’t lost in two years and they have never lost to Ohio State, what needs to happen for the Buckeyes to win this game? 

Baver: (1) Ohio St HAS TO tackle better. Through the first 10 games, OSU averaged 2 missed tackles per game, a quite impressive stat. The last 3 gms that # rose to 6.7 missed tackles per game. And Clemson tailback Travis Etienne leads the nation in yards after contact. 

(2) Justin Fields HAS TO do a better job of getting rid of the football. First 13 gms, it didn’t really matter; no OSU opponent could turn Justin’s one main weakness into an upset. Fields cannot take multiple sacks Saturday night when there is an option to throw the ball out of bounds. 

(3) The Ohio St O-line HAS TO do an adequate job identifying (pre-snap) where Clemson may bring pressure from. While the run blocking has been excellent, the OSU OL has struggled against the more complex blitz packages they have faced. Brent Venables is the best DC in college football, so this won’t be easy. Let’s hope the Buckeye OL has done their homework.

Colin: Which position matchups are favorable and what has you concerned? 

Baver: While Clemson nose tackle Tyler Davis is a budding star, I like the matchup of OSU’s interior O-Line vs Clemson’s DT’s. The trio of Jonah Jackson, Josh Myers and Wyatt Davis are unsung warriors, and another 140+ yds rushing from JK should be doable. Also, Virginia took advantage of Clemson FS Tanner Muse, who really struggled in pass coverage against the UVA receivers. I look for Ryan Day to test Muse through the air as well.

On the flip side, although OSU has tall corners, no one has big, athletic WRs like Clemson. Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Diondre Overton all go 6’4”. The Buckeye DBs not only have to stick with their guys...they will have to be in position to play the ball. With Trevor Lawrence’s quick release, and the size/skill of his WRs, Clemson will find success through the air against OSU. And I won’t be surprised if Trevor nets 40+ yards with his legs.

Colin: Finish this sentence: This is the biggest Buckeye game since........ 

And forget winning the National Championship, what would a win against Clemson do for Ohio State and the Big Ten going forward? 

Baver: Biggest game since the 2014 title game against Oregon. In 130 years of OSU football, there has been no other Buckeye team that has dominated like this one. This isn’t hyperbole....the numbers back this up. Clemson has not played an opponent that is ranked in the current AP Poll. This, while Ohio State is 5-0 against ranked teams. From that angle, if OSU can’t beat Dabo & Clemson this year, it will sting.

I think those outside Buckeye Nation believe it’s Clemson, Alabama, and then everyone else. Beat Clemson with a first-year head coach, and perceptions will change. What would it mean to the Big Ten? Perception wouldn’t change much outside of Big Ten country. The Big Ten as a whole isn’t that far behind the SEC, but the media isn’t going to give the B10 credit until Michigan, Penn St and Wisconsin start challenging for Nat’l Titles.

Colin: What are your thoughts on LSU vs Oklahoma in the other semi and the Cheeseheads vs the Ducks in the Rose?

Baver: I liked Oklahoma against the Vegas spread prior to the suspensions of edge rusher Ronnie Perkins and RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Perkins led the team in sacks and Stevenson was really coming on. 13½ is still a lot of points against a Lincoln Riley-led offense, but LSU is headed to the title game.

The Rose Bowl should be a battle of two evenly matched. Oregon impressed enough in the P12 title game for me to give them the edge here. I really think Justin Herbert is a 10-year starter in the NFL, and think the Duck defense is nails. I will definitely be rooting for the Badgers, but as a bettor, Oregon +2½ pts is best bet in what should be a coin-flip game. 

Colin: Give me your final thoughts on Ohio St vs Clemson and a prediction.

Baver: I am not sure either defense can hold either opposing offense in check. But Clemson’s 4 semi-final games over the last 4 years have each gone under the Vegas (Over/Under) Total by an average of 18.5 pts per game. Venables’ defenses have been well prepared with extra prep time, no doubt. And departing OSU DC Jeff Hafley knows a bit about defensive schemes as well. While conventional wisdom points to a high scoring game, keep that stat in mind.

Ohio St got their best all-around effort from their three senior WRs, Hill, Victor and Mack, in the B10 Title Game. If Trevor, Etienne and company do but up 30+ pts like Vegas expects them to, then the OSU starting WRs need to rise to the occasion. Ohio St can’t expect Olave and Garrett Wilson to carry huge loads while the starters only catch a ball or two each. 

Finally, Ohio State’s D-line vs Clemson’s O-line should be your matchup of the evening. Clemson may have the best O-line in CFB, and OSU’s D-line is a top-5 unit nationally at a minimum. The Buckeyes are going to need more help from the guys that will alternate lining up opposite Chase Young (i.e. Tyreke Smith, Tyler Friday, Zack Harrison). 

I definitely give Ohio St the overall talent edge, and OSU now has Ryan Day’s offensive mind to counter Brent Venables’ defensive scheme. I see Ohio St advancing and have it: OSU 31 Clemson 28. Let’s get this on already.

—Brent Baver and Colin Gawel, 2019

Pass D woes vs UM, OSU's powerful ground attack, Day's play calling, Round 2 vs Badgers: Baver & Colin Q&A - B10 Champ Week

Colin: Not to throw a wet blanket on a Buckeye love fest not seen since the 2006 season, but did Michigan lay out the road map for another SEC destruction by neutralizing Chase Young and exposing an over rated pass defense? 

Baver: I’m not concerned about Chase Young, but if Shaun Wade isn’t full-go for OSU’s remaining games, that worries me. I’ve watched The Game twice, and Young was double-teamed and held frequently. I’ll still concede that Young probably was not at his best in Ann Arbor, but after the season he has had, I’ll gladly give him a pass. I expect Chase to make more noise this week in Lucas Oil Stadium.

As for the Buckeye secondary, I think it’s fair to say they are not the same unit without Shaun Wade. They made adjustments in the second half, but UM receivers dropped maybe a half-dozen catchable balls in that half as well. The stats should have been worse. Even if Wade and everyone else is healthy the rest of the way, I think potential matchups against Clemson and/or LSU could be shoot-outs. Ohio St has not faced anything comparable to those two offenses.

Colin: On to better things, JK Dobbins and this O Line are moving into rare air. How good is this running game?

Baver: It’s what makes this offense tick. The pass blocking can be shaky at times, but not the OSU interior linemen (Jackson, Myers & Davis) maul defenders on running plays. With Dobbins, as we’ve discussed, the threat of the QB run and far better run blocking have of course helped boost Dobbins numbers. But anyone attributing his big year simply to those two things needs to look closer. Dobbins is running with far more attitude this year, and his acceleration is at another level. I had good view from C-deck near the 40-yard line for the Penn St game, and it was a different feel for me. One of the things that jumped out at me was how fast Dobbins was getting to the edge when he was 25+ carries into the game. I’d probably argue for JK as the team MVP this year over Fields and Chase Young...and that is saying something.

Colin: What impresses you most about Ryan Day’s play calling? 

Baver: Not sure I can nail it down to one thing, so I’ll just shoot from the hip... 

Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma is probably viewed as the most innovative mind in CFB today. Riley’s concepts are said to be blowing away the top offensive minds in the NFL. And when you watch the Sooners play, you can see it...you just find yourself saying, “Wow”. 

While opposing D-coordinators are probably wondering what the hell Lincoln Riley is going to throw at them next, it’s almost seemed like the opposite so far with Ryan Day. With his rosy cheeks, Day looks like the nice, young boy from next door who always offers to help you with your yard work. Then, before the opposing DC knows it, Day has hit him with a variety of different big plays, and his defense is reeling. And when the DC thinks he has figured out a few things, Day is one step ahead of him. We saw that in Ann Arbor. Just when OSU fans and Don Brown thought OSU had moved on from crossing routes, Day dials up the crossing route to Garrett Wilson late in the 2nd quarter for a 41-yard gain. 

I’m rambling a bit, but wanted to also mention the dozens of tweaks that Day has worked in this year. On the surface they seem little, but many of the plays that weren’t effective a year ago suddenly are this year. And this brings me back to Day’s unassuming demeanor that disguises the attack from a silent assassin.

Colin: Let’s be honest, playing Wisconsin again for the Big Ten Title just feels like a nuisance and a bore. Your thoughts on round 2? And if we lose do the Bucks still make the CFP and give me your best case seedings.

Baver: I think the Bucks are in for another similar game with Wisconsin with the Badgers holding their own early, while OSU exploits them late. The fast track indoors in Indy should allow Ohio St to show off their athleticism a bit more this time around. I have it Ohio St 42 Wisconsin 21. Still funnier things have happened, so let’s hope your nuisance doesn’t become a nightmare. If it does, OSU should still get in. A 2-loss Wisconsin team won’t get the nod over a 1-loss OSU team, plus you now have OSU’s rout of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and Alabama having bowed out. My guess is that Ohio St will be a #3 or #4 seed in the playoff should they lose to the Cheeseheads. A comfortable win means OSU secures the #1 seed regardless of how impressive LSU looks against Georgia.

Colin: Bonus question for Brian Phillips, why does Washington State light up every other team except their arch rivals the Washington Huskies? 

Baver: Full disclosure, I don’t think I have caught a full Was-Was St game in 3 or 4 years. From what I saw last Friday (maybe a quarter and a half), the Huskies were often only rushing 3 down lineman and were still getting to Wazzu QB Anthony Gordon. As for the 7-straight WSU’s losses, Washington’s DC (and now their new HC) Jimmy Lake has loved running his mouth about it. Pretty arrogant, but it’s fair to say that Lake knows a thing or two about stopping Leach’s air raid.