Will Sparty Capitalize on Buckeye's Hawkeye Hangover? Baver Answers

Colin: Wow. Nobody saw that coming. Have you ever seen a worse defensive performance from a highly ranked Buckeye squad?

Baver: No; it was disgraceful. Iowa was averaging 25 ppg prior to last Saturday, and Ohio St should have been the best defense that the Hawkeyes had faced all year. Iowa had TD drives of 63, 80, 89, 78, 60, and 47 yds…mind blowing. It’s been a long time since I can remember a Buckeye defense being that confused. Hard to believe Greg Schiano allowed that to happen.

Colin: 5 TD passes allowed. Four to tight ends and one to a fullback. That is no coincidence. What did the Hawkeye coaches see on film that Penn State didn't?

Baver: I think the Buckeyes were well prepared for Penn St, having that game circled for 12 mths and the extra week to prepare. And Iowa was certainly well prepared for Ohio St. Ferentz and son obviously re-watched the OSU-Oklahoma game and thought the OSU LBs could still be had in pass coverage. Iowa was able to get their TEs matched up with Buckeye LBs, and create confusion with stacked or bunched receivers. Iowa’s fundamentals on offense trumped OSU’s athleticism on D. And Nathan Stanley picked apart a baffled Buckeye defense all afternoon. I definitely underestimated Stanley, as did the Buckeye defense.

Colin: Meanwhile our vaunted D-line got pushed all over the field. WTF?

Baver: And against two freshmen Iowa OTs to boot…so disheartening. I think much of it was just heart….the Iowa O-line simply wanted it more. And the Hawkeyes early success on offense fed off itself, with the confidence of their O-line sky-high by mid 3rd quarter. And the OSU D-line seemed tired….even in the first half. I wonder if Urban has burned these guys out a bit. There were whispers that he worked the team too hard leading up to the Clemson debacle. I don’t know if that’s true, but the burnout theory seems feasible to me.

Colin: Has this offensive under Barrett run out of fresh ideas? Is it fixable with this personnel or will it have to wait for next season?

Baver: I wouldn’t go that far, in terms of being out of ideas. Less than two weeks ago, this Buckeye offense torched a Penn St defense that at the time was giving up an NCAA-best 9.6 ppg. I think it was a major hangover emotionally coming off that game...a bigger hangover than one would expect. But I am worried about JT and his confidence right now. (Yeah, we are back to that topic again.)

Colin: Sparty comes to town excited for the opportunity to win the Big Ten East title. We come in sulking because we are out of the college football playoff. Is this a problem?

Baver: That’s the big question….how does this Buckeye team respond to that drubbing. I tend to think they bounce back emotionally, maybe a bit like they did against UM in 2015, after the heartbreaking loss to Sparty the prior week. But this OSU team has way more problems than that ‘15 team had; thus they could play with a lot of energy tomorrow and still lose.

Colin: What do the Bucks need to do to win this game?

Baver: On offense, JT mentally has to bounce back.  And they have to find a way to get JK Dobbins more carries…rinse and repeat. On defense, the Bucks will need to contain Brian Lewerke, which is no easy task. You might see Lewerke sneaking out of several would-be sacks and making big plays, and that would make things very hard on this Buckeye D. I think the 16 ½ pt spread is too high…no Urban vs Dino matchup has had a margin of victory that big, and Saturday should be no different. But I like the Bucks to bounce back and get a big win. I’ve got Ohio State 27 Michigan State 20.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and other games you will be keeping an eye on the weekend?

Baver: 17-10 against the spread after a rough week. I love TCU catching 6 ½ at Oklahoma. I just see a letdown after the Bedlam game, and I think these 2 teams are evenly matched; should be a tight game. Notre Dame at Miami….playoff elimination game? Might be. Notre Dame was probably caught looking ahead last week in their 11-pt victory over Wake, but I think they will be focused in this one. I like the Irish laying the 3 ½ on the road.

Was JT's Performance the best in OSU history? Baver answers Colin's Questions - Iowa Week

Colin: Where does that win over Penn State rank in all time great Ohio State games?

Baver: It’s hard to believe what Ohio St overcame to win that game. They trailed for the first 58 minutes, committed 10 penalties, were minus-2 in TOs, were down 18 pts twice, had 3 colossal kickoff gaffes, and although they intercepted two passes in the end zone, both calls were overturned, with Penn St instead scoring 14 pts. Oh….and the Bucks were down 38-27 with the ball at their own 24 with 5:37 left on the clock. Certainly one of Ohio St’s greatest comebacks and finales ever, and they did it against the #2 team in the land. But so much of it was painful to watch. Still, this one ranks right up there.

Colin: All things considered, was that performance by JT Barrett the best in the history of Ohio State football? What even comes close? 

Baver: JT put on a clinic Saturday….one for the ages. It probably tops three other Buckeye performances that come to my mind…those being: freshman Ted Ginn scoring on a reverse, a punt return, and a 58-yard game winning TD catch-and-run against Sparty in ‘04; Eddie’s George’s 314-yard rushing effort against Illinois in ’95; and Chris Spielman’s 29-tackle game against Michigan in ‘86.

Colin: How much better is this OSU offense than the one that struggled against Oklahoma? What's different now?

Baver: Light years better. JT, the O-line, and the WRs have come so far. These guys weren’t in sync with the offensive coaches early on this year, but they clearly are now. It’s gone from “Bench JT” to “Barrett deserves the Heisman.” I know I had my doubts about him after the Oklahoma game. Wow…what a transformation.

Colin: Is this defensive line really as special as it appears? Does the D have a weakness that can be exposed?

Baver: The D-line is ridiculous. Their depth wore down Penn State’s O-line, to the point where it was a mismatch in the 4th quarter. The Buckeye defense registered 13 tackles-for-losses, which someone told me was the most in a Big Ten game since 2008. The weakness is still OSU DBs in pass coverage, and yes….if they face a good passing offense, they can certainly be had again. But will they face a QB with a big arm again this year? Maybe in the Playoff, if they get there.

Colin: Special teams WTF?

Baver: You called it. You asked if Urban would be stupid enough to kick to Barkley. I guess I was naive. The Buckeye kickoff coverage is “…a joke right now” ….Urban’s words, not mine. It’s both the personnel and the scheme. OSU has been using 4 current or former walk-ons on this unit, which may be part of the problem. And the Buckeyes appear to be sorely missing Eric Glover-Williams. EGW was probably the best coverage guy they had. As for the scheme, Penn St saw that once you create a crease on the right side, there’s little help to the left in this uncommon Buckeye scheme. With Saquon’s speed, the crease was all he needed….bingo, 6 points.

Colin: Iowa City is a tough place to play. Should Buckeye fans be worried?

Baver: Iowa and Kirk Ferentz can be pesky…at the very least. And a Penn St hangover is a real concern. The Iowa defense, led by LB Josey Jewell, DE Anthonly Nelson, and DB Josh Jackson is stingy. While I tend to think Iowa will hang around for awhile, I think Ohio St puts them away in the 2nd half, wearing them down on both sides of the ball, much like they did against Penn St. Iowa starts freshmen at both OT spots, as both of their preseason starting tackles are now lost for the season. The frosh are going to be no match for Bosa, Hubbard, and company. I like Ohio State 34-13. If I’m a bettor, I would lay the 17 ½ pts here.

Colin: Does this first Playoff Poll mean anything?

Baver: No.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and other games around the country you will be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 17-7 against the spread – still knockin’ ‘em dead. I think Miami’s magic runs out against the Hokies. I like Va Tech to win and cover as a 2 ½ pt favorite at Miami. Notre Dame is a very good football team; I like the Irish to cover the 14 pts at home against an improved Wake Forest team. No real feeling about the Bedlam game….Okie State laying 2 ½ at home against the Sooners seems about right to me - that game could go either way. And I think Penn State laying 9 in East Lansing seems about right as well.

What can win or lose this game for OSU - Baver Answers Colin's Questions Part 2

Colin: I used to make fun of Trace McSorley for just chucking up jump balls and getting lucky. But he sure seems to get lucky a lot. Will this work against the OSU secondary?

Baver: I think most Buckeye fans have now seen enough of McSorley’s lobs into coverage to realize that it isn’t just luck when he completes so many of them. It helps having a 6’4” target in Juwan Johnson and a physical freak like 6’6” TE Mike Gesicki to throws lobs to. And their top WR DaeSean Hamilton isn’t small either (6’1”), and he plays the ball extremely well. It also appears that the Penn St offensive coaches do a pretty good job of finding their opponents’ matchup problems in coverage. This is a huge concern for Ohio St, as the Buckeye corners have had their problems in coverage, often not getting turned around to play the ball. 

Colin: Will Urban be wise and avoid kicking to Barkley on kickoffs or be stubborn and risk giving up a big play?

Baver: Barkley is a pretty good return man, 5th nationally (at this point) in KOR avg, but I am not sure he is at the level where you kick away from him. (Knock on wood.) Maybe you take more chances with the coffin corner, and concede to giving Penn St the ball at the 35 if the kick goes out of bounds. By the way, Parris Campbell would be 2nd in the nation in KO return avg, but he is one return shy of the minimum # of returns needed to qualify. If I were James Franklin, I wouldn’t be kicking the ball to Parris.

Colin: Penn State's defense has impressive numbers. Any true NFL caliber studs on that side of the ball?

Baver: Actually, not really. All 11 starters are draft eligible, but safety Marcus Allen and DE Shareef Miller are the only guys projecting as high as 2nd day picks. But Yahoo sports recently talked with 8 coaches that have played Penn St, and every one of them commented about how well the Nittany Lion defense plays together. And they have a lot of bodies that contribute on defense, with 17 different Penn St defenders having registered sacks so far this season. That’s crazy.

Colin: Final thoughts on what can win or lose the game for Ohio State?

Baver: We talked about the problems Buckeye defenders have getting turned around in coverage – this could be a huge factor. The Buckeye LBs are also going to have to play assignment football in playing the read option with McSorley/Barkley, and will have to hold their own in pass coverage. Protecting JT is also a must. On the other hand, if JT gets decent protection and throws the ball with confidence, I think Penn St is in trouble. And if JT makes Penn St respect his arm, JK Dobbins will get his yards against the Nits #1 rated rush D. We also talked yesterday about OSU biggest advantage Saturday, and that is their D-line vs PSU’s O-line.

Colin: Breakdown Ohio State-Penn St from a Vegas perspective. We’ll pass on the other games this week, as there is really only one game that matters.

Baver:  Most people I talk to think the 6 ½ pt spread is too high. That line likely has a lot to do with the situational angle, with Ohio St at home, off a bye and the Nits off the huge white-out home win against Michigan. Urban is 40-10 against the spread in gms where he has had more than 7 days to prepare for his opponent. If you know anything about picking games against the spread, that is insane. On the flip side, PSU has covered the Vegas spread in 15 of their last 17 games, another crazy stat. I wouldn’t lay 6 ½ in this one – Penn St’s offense is going to put points on the board. The McSorley/Barkley combo is as good as it gets. I think the game could go either way, but I think more things favor Ohio State in this one – there is a reason why they are just short of a touchdown favorite here. The Call: Ohio State 31 Penn State 28.

Why does OSU-Penn State seem bigger than other recent big games? Baver Answers Colin's Questions - Part 1

Colin: Why does this big game feel bigger than other recent big games? Future implications? Revenge? Is it because Ohio State fans truly dislike Penn State? 

Baver: The last two big game embarrassments at the hands of Clemson and Oklahoma have created a fragile OSU fan base. I’ve never seen Ohio St be a 6+ point favorite in a game and hear so many doubts from Buckeye fans. With Ohio State being: the team that has more talent, the team that has more depth, the team that has the better coaching staff, the team playing for revenge, the team that is at home, and the team that is off a bye…if that Buckeye team can’t beat a Penn St team that is far better at home than on the road, then this is a major dose of reality for Urban and Ohio St. So yes, future implications are huge here. Usually with those advantages, you simply check the win box if you are Ohio St. But you obviously can’t do that here. If there was any hope of doing so, those hopes were squashed when Penn State torched Don Brown’s vaunted Michigan defense last Saturday night. And that raised the stakes for Ohio State-Penn State even higher.

Colin: Who are you most concerned will hurt the Buckeyes: Saquon Barkley or Trace McSorley? Somebody else?

Baver: Probably McSorley, as his style is going to cause Ohio State problems. He is somewhat of Baker Mayfield clone, with the scrambling and improvising. The OSU defense couldn’t handle Mayfield in early September, but have they progressed enough to rein in McSorley? We shall see. With Barkley, I don’t see him grinding away at the Buckeye defense; it’s the plays where he breaks free for huge gains that I worry about more, but that of course is no small concern either. And the combo of the two, when McSorley runs the read option, is pretty hard to defend. McSorley will make you pay if you key too much on Saquon.

Colin: Can the Penn State O-line hold up against Nick Bosa and company?

Baver: I don’t think so. It’s an improved PSU O-line, but Ohio St’s D-line vs Penn St’s O-line is the biggest tangible advantage Ohio State has in this game. 

Colin: Will Penn State use the same defensive formation employed by MSU, MICH, Clemson and Oklahoma and dare JT Barrett to throw downfield? (10 up / 1 safety)

Baver: I think they will indeed stack the box to make JT beat them with his arm, and adjust if JT starts making them start paying for it. I mean, that is certainly what I’d do. JT is now throwing the ball better? JT now has much more confidence? If I’m Penn State, I say, “Prove it”.

Colin: What can Ohio State do to finally score against a top caliber team?

Baver: From a strategy standpoint, Urban has to keep running his tailbacks, a strategy he has gotten away from as the games wore on in some high profile losses. Curtis Samuel had only two carries in last year’s loss in Happy Valley. That was criminal…especially when one of those two carries went 74 yards to the house. Unless Penn St goes to ridiculous measures to take the run away, Urban and Kevin Wilson have to keep giving the ball to JK Dobbins. From a performance standpoint, JT has to throw the ball with confidence, and trust his WR’s….a group that has come a long way since being shut down by the Sooners.

Colin: The forecast on Saturday is for rain. Who does this benefit?

Baver: OSU’s performances against Sparty the past two seasons tell me that bad weather is not a good thing for Ohio State. But from an X’s and O’s standpoint, I think the bad weather probably favors Ohio St. If both teams are reduced to mostly running the football because of the weather, I like Ohio St’s chances of stopping Penn St’s running game more than I like Penn St’s chances of stopping OSU’s running game. It doesn’t matter to me that PSU has the top-ranked run defense nationally; it’s going to be harder for the Penn St O-line to make that Buckeye D-line budge. Also of note, JK Dobbins actually has more rushing yards than Saquon Barkley this season on quite a few less carries. Urban just can’t abandon the tailback run in a big game again, or I’m going to have a mental breakdown.

Can J.T. Win the Heisman? Baver Answers Bye Week Questions

Colin: The OSU offense looks like a kid playing Madden on the easiest level. Has J.T. reinserted himself into the Heisman race?

Brent: What a turnaround, huh? Urban, Kevin Wilson, Ryan Day and JT seem to now be in sync …..at least against the softer part of OSU’s schedule that they just buzzed through. And JT’s confidence? It’s night and day since the shell-shocked look we saw from him on the sidelines late in that Oklahoma game. At a minimum, JT has a decent shot of getting to New York for the Heisman presentation IF he can get it done against the stiffer competition that Ohio State has coming up

Colin: What is the offense doing now it wasn't earlier in the year? Is this becoming Kevin Wilson's offense?

Brent: At a high level….it’s two things. One is what we just talked about, and that’s JT’s confidence. The other is the play callers (Wilson, Urban and probably Ryan Day to some extent) doing a much better job at mixing things up. Specifically, you’ve seen some run-pass options, where JT has the option of keeping, pitching, or passing. You’ve got Day’s “mesh concept”, using receiver crossing patterns that free up a WR (usually Johnny Dixon) in the middle….we’ve seen Dixon take it to the house 3 times on this play. You’ve also got the new wrinkle in using TE Rashod Berry as a fullback and lead blocker.

But back to the confidence thing and the play calling. The Buckeyes offense is now confident enough to run tempo without the fear of 3-and-outs wearing down their defense. And JT’s gotten comfortable enough to start throwing the ball over the middle and into tighter windows. As far as play calling, the OSU coaches seem to be staying one step ahead of opponents’ defensive adjustments week after week.

Colin: The Cornhuskers have gotten absolutely embarrassed the last two meetings with the Buckeyes. Is there any hope for a proud Nebraska program moving forward and do you think they regret joining the Big 10?

Brent: They are awful. And to think, OSU punter Dru Chrisman went to the trouble of traveling to Lincoln. Mike Riley was simply a bad hire. I mean, his successful days at Oregon State were behind him, and he lands the Nebraska job in 2015? I think at the very latest, Riley is gone at the end of this season, and getting Scott Frost to return to Lincoln could get things headed in the right direction pretty quickly. I am not sure it mattered whether it was the Big Ten or the Big 12….Mike Riley is not the guy to head a program like the one Nebraska has.

Colin: Going into bye week, which OSU players have shown the most improvement since the beginning of the season?

Brent: (1) JT Barrett, for the reasons we just discussed. (2) Dante Booker….he was everyone’s whipping boy after the Buckeye LBs got burnt for several big plays by Oklahoma, but he has really come on since. Everyone knew he had the skills; now he’s translated those skills into production. (3) Binjamen Victor….like Booker, he is another guy that everyone knew had all the talent in the world, but I thought maybe lacked WR instincts. He’s proved me wrong there; Victor is really starting to get it.

Colin: Who has been a disappointment?

Brent: Kendall Sheffield. 5-star athlete, 2-star cornerback….at least so far. I am still holding out a glimmer of hope that he can play corner at the level that OSU needs.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and what games/lines will you be watching this weekend?

Brent: 16-7 against the spread…I’ve been killing it. Not a lot jumping out at me spread wise this week, so I will just take a stab at the 2 marquee games. Penn State-Michigan in Happy Valley. I think you take Michigan and the 9 ½ points here. Michigan’s defense should keep them in this one, but their offense probably keeps them from winning it. I like Notre Dame laying 3 ½ at home, hosting a USC team that is off that emotional 1-point win against Utah. I think Notre Dame is the better team here, and the home field alone is worth 3 ½ or more points.

Baver Answers Colin's Questions - Huskers Week

Catch Baver on the CD1025 Morning Show w/ Brian Phillips Friday Mornings at 7:40 am. and follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Before talking Buckeyes, do you think Baker "Money" Mayfield would have planted that flag in Ohio Stadium if he knew Iowa State was going to do him the same way just once month later? How embarrassing was that and why did the Sooners defense that dominated the Bucks with ease give up so many points?

Baver: Yep….humiliating. 7 straight yrs with a loss to a double-digit dog. This time to a 31-point dog. That’s pretty hard to do. That wasn’t the same Baker Mayfield that carved up the Bucks. All those times he found open receivers after being chased by OSU D-linemen? Mayfield overlooked open receivers time and time against Iowa St. As for Sooner defense…similar story. It didn’t look anything like the defense that shut Ohio State down. The short passing game that the Bucks couldn’t get going? Iowa St feasted on OU with their short game. OU did have some key injuries on D, with Emmanuel Beal and Steven Parker missing good portions of the game….but come on, this was Iowa State for heaven’s sake.

Colin: Along those lines, with the improved Buckeye passing game, do you think we would beat the Sooners if the rematch were this week?

Baver: The Bucks probably would win a rematch. The OSU WRs sure look improved. We’ll probably be able to answer that question better after Penn State’s trip to the ‘Shoe in 2 wks.

Colin: Nobody is giving Nebraska any chance in this night game at Lincoln. Sounds like a classic trap game. Is there a scenario where the Huskers pull the upset?

Baver: Nebraska is a team that could probably beat Ohio St if a number of things went right for them. None of OSU’s last four opponents could say that. They got CB Chris Jones (meniscus tear) back for a bit against Wisconsin last Saturday, and he should play more against OSU. When healthy, he is the best defender the Huskers have. But if the Buckeyes let Tanner Lee beat them, God help them. Lee has thrown a league-high 10 picks, and is going to get harassed by Nick Bosa and company all night long. If they get Ohio State in a funk, this could be close, but I don’t think that happens. I like Ohio State 41-13, so I think you lay the 24 pts.

Colin: JT Barrett putting up some huge numbers. Is your confidence in him on the rise?

Baver: To an extent, but again, judgment day is October 28th against the Nits. Kevin Wilson is JT’s 3rd O-coordinator that he has played for. It looks like things are now starting to click a bit, and JT’s got some of his confidence back. Barrett doesn’t throw many picks, and is such an effective runner. And you’d see a big downgrade in those two areas if Haskins were running the show right now. But JT has not played well in big games as of late, and Penn State still looms.

Colin: Is Michigan's offense beyond repair and why hasn't Jim Harbaugh been able to recruit a stud QB?

Baver: That’s a pretty bad offense, isn’t it? Of course, bad play calling, and a minus-5 turnover ratio against Sparty didn’t help matters last Saturday. What is it with Jimmy continuing to throw the ball when he doesn’t need to in big games? It absolutely killed them against Ohio St last year and against Sparty last week. But I wouldn’t necessarily write UM off just yet. As for QB’s, they’ve signed a top-10 QB in the last two classes (Brandon Peters in ’16, Phil Steele’s #8 QB nationally, and Dylan McCaffrey this yr, Steele’s #4 QB). They may turn to Peters at some point, but they are trying to redshirt McCaffrey. Peters is probably behind where UM thought he would be at this point.

Colin: Washington State cracks the top ten. Can they run the table in the Pac 10?

Baver: Maybe, but I doubt it. The Cougs of course have the big one against the Huskies to end the regular season, and that one is on the road. They also have to play at Stanford, and would likely have to probably beat USC again if they make the P12 title game. Still, this is a good Wazzu team, and even if they don’t win the league, they are not going to go quietly.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and any other lines/games you will be keeping an eye on?

Baver: 13-6 against the spread….so good overall, but thought Urban would lay it on against UNLV, and take it a bit easier on two of his ex-assistants in Ash and Durkin…and OSU did the opposite. I like Utah catching 13 on the road at USC. USC has the look-ahead with a much-improved Notre Dame team on deck, while Utah is underrated year-in and year-out. I definitely like Auburn laying 7 on the road against LSU. This is simply not a good LSU team. And I gotta go with Tom Herman’s Longhorns getting 8 1/2 in the Red River Shootout.