Baver Answers Beaver Week Questions: Part Two - Brent Baver

Colin: Our receivers work hard and have so much depth blah blah blah blah. Is anybody going to step up and be the man who puts fear in the opposing defense? 

Baver: I think the short answer is no. I mean, a defensive coordinator seeing Parris Campbell get in the open field is nightmare for him, but I know that’s not what you mean. Campbell really isn’t a true receiver. I must say that Zone-6 did finally grow on me last year and you saw OSU’s overall depth take its toll against several of its opponents, including Penn State and Michigan in huge comeback wins for the Buckeyes. 

But if the old fashion go-to WR is what you want, it’s very unlikely you are going to see that this season. The guy with the biggest upside of the bunch is Binjamen Victor, but he brings the biggest downside as well. A sleeper to watch would be CJ Saunders. 

The depth argument isn’t sexy, but Phil Steele and Athlon both ranked Ohio State’s WRs as the best WR group in the Big Ten.

Colin: Should I even ask about the tights ends? 

Baver: If you are into blocking schemes, sure…..

Colin: The defense should be stout again. How would you attack them if you were coaching Oregon State? 

Baver: Not that Oregon State has the talent or scheme to do it, but Oklahoma and Iowa exposed Ohio State big time with their short passing games in upset wins against Ohio State last season. These games were a low point for Buckeye LBs since Urban arrived in 2012. And I guess I’d use your “…so much depth blah blah blah..” comment when looking at this LB group. With the talent OSU brings in year in and year out, maybe one or even two guys explode like Darren Lee did in ’14, but I am taking a wait and see approach with this group. 

Colin: Meanwhile Michigan is taking on Notre Dame. Considering the Wolverines closed out 2017 with three straight losses, how big a game is this for Harbaugh and his non chicken eaters? 

Baver: Huge. Jimmy was surviving last year’s rebuilding year, but then his team blew a 14-0 lead losing to Ohio State once again. But at least UM followed that up with a 2ndhalf collapse against a hapless South Carolina team in the Outback bowl, earning the Big Ten its only bowl lost last season.

On paper, this Michigan team clearly looks like Harbaugh’s best. Their defense lost everybody after the 2016 season, and still had a top ranked D last season. They may have the best D in the nation this year. They finally have a QB, and they have a lot of very highly rated guys that got good work as true freshmen in ‘17. 

Still, this has been a Michigan team that couldn’t win a tight game against a decent opponent to save their lives. But I guess I will play the fool again and pick Jimmy to finally get the road win against a ranked team, in a 17-14 type game. But this is a game that can go either way.

Colin: Any other games and lines you will be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: Washington vs Auburn in Atlanta is the game of the week. Both are legit top-10 teams nationally on paper. Chris Peterson has done a phenomenal job so far at Auburn, but has lost most of his matchups against elite opponents. Auburn doesn’t get the pub like Bama does in this neck of the woods, but Gus and his assistants have been recruiting like gangbusters, and like Washington, the Tigers are stacked this year. I would have these teams probably about even on a neutral field, so I would have lean Auburn with the Huskies traveling across the country to play to play Gus’ boys.

Other gms…..I am really interested in seeing Joe Burrow in action against the Mark Richt’s Hurricanes, although I don’t have a good feel for how that one will turn out. I tend to think Joe won’t be ready yet, as he’s had little time to adjust in Baton Rouge. Still, I will be rooting for him.

I will pass on picking games against the spread this week and just enjoy the return of college football with the nightmare of an August we have had in Buckeye country….I’ll make one exception and pick the OSU vs OSU game ATS.

I’d say take the Beavers getting 38.5 against Ohio State with all the uncertainty with this Buckeye team. I also wonder if you will see OSU play true freshmen for much of the second half with the new redshirt rule. I’ve got Ohio State winning 48-14.

Baver Answers Beaver Week Questions: Part One - Brent Baver

Colin: Might as well get this out of the way, do you feel the Urban suspension was too long, too short or just right? 

Baver: My first thought after reading the report was that Urban was lucky to have a job. Knowing that Gene Smith provided Urban with an easy plan to address questions at Big Ten Media Days, and that Urban did the opposite of what Gene suggested, is pretty hard to swallow. Add to it the findings that indicate Meyer likely deleted text messages, knowing his phone would likely be looked at, and there was almost no way Urban could have gotten by without a suspension. Were it not for all that things Urban has done for Ohio State on and off the football field, he almost certainly would have been out of a job. 

Trying to reconcile his failure to drop the hammer on Zach Smith with all the things Urban has done for this program, aside from winning at a ridiculously high level, is tough to do. Meyer has completely raised the bar at Ohio State in every possible manner. 

Urban took a lot of heat when he was at Florida because of player arrests and other off-the-field players issues. He made this area of responsibility a personal project when he arrived at Ohio State, and the results are a night and day difference. These kind of player incidents are way, way down at OSU since Urban arrived in Columbus. Football graduation rates and Academic All-Big Ten selections? Meyer has knocked the ball out of the park here as well. And Urban and Shelley do more for women’s causes than just about any other current head coach/wife combo in college football. And the things they do are absolutely NOT “just for show”. If you missed OSU commit Harry Miller's mother's heartbreaking story, and her unequivocal support of Urban, you absolutely need to check it out HERE. Kristina Miller is a domestic abuse survivor.

It’s hard for me to have a beef with the 3-game suspension, but I think Ohio State definitely made the right move in keeping Meyer. Still, with perception and reality becoming so easily blurred in today’s society, Urban may not ultimately make it through this. If he doesn’t, I will be crushed.

Colin: Along those lines, Urban is notoriously wired pretty tight, how do you think this whole affair is impacting his ability to stay healthy and continue coaching? 

Baver: A definite big concern. Many questioned whether Urban would coach into his 60s before this ordeal got underway. This is a head coach that turned his back to the field, not being able to watch his kicker attempt a 4thquarter field goal in the Big Ten Title game last December. Tightly wired indeed. But Ohio St’s recruiting over that following 6-mth period was off-the-charts, and I had renewed hope for Urban’s longevity prior to things blowing up with Zach Smith.

I think back at first hearing him say “…coach like your hairs on fire.” That’s Urban - spot on. I really hope his health holds up and that Urban is here 5 years from now, but I have my doubts.

Colin: On to football... It all starts up front, the line is reshuffling and replacing a Center and Left Tackle. What should we expect from this unit?

Baver: A big question mark. And as you know….and it’s not just “a” center that has to be replaced; it’s the Remington Award winner. So we now know Mike Jordan will slide from LG to center, while Malcolm Pridgeon will fill Jordan’s vacated LG spot. Word on the street is that Pridgeon has made huge strides. Sophomore Thayer Munford will be at left tackle when healthy, but is dinged up right now, and would be replaced by Joshua Alibi if he can’t go in the opener. LT is a major concern, but I think Munford will eventually be a good one. In the short run, Munfort is going to have major problems dealing with TCU’s Ben Banogu in Wk 3. Banogu is the B12 pre-season Defensive Player of the Year selection.

Colin: It's no secret the offense became predictable and stagnant at times last year with JT under center. Will we see a different offense with the change to Dwayne Haskins?

Baver: You know me, I am almost always going to defend JT. So I have to start by saying, in ’17, JT led the Big Ten in passing efficiency, threw for 3,053 yds, 35 TDs, ran for 798 yds with another 12 TDs on the ground, and played the entire B10 title game 6 days after a knee operation. And JTs ability that was taken for granted, to pick up the needed 1st down on third or fourth and short, was unlike any college QB I can remember.

But I love Dwayne Haskins’ upside. He certainly has a bigger, more accurate arm than JT. There will be fewer read options with DH, and fewer designed runs, but still probably too many called keepers if/when Urban returns. If I were the head coach (and I thank God I am not), I would want to limit the hits Haskins takes. I don’t think OSU can win the rugged Big Ten East with Tate Martell at QB as the #1 guy behind center.

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What to Make of Burrow's Transfer and What Now?

What to Make of Burrow’s Transfer and What Now?

When Urban Meyer accepted Joe Burrow’s commitment in the spring of 2014, I had little doubt that Burrow had the skills to play quarterback at Ohio St.  Not because I know anything about evaluating high school talent, but because Urban knows a thing or two about selecting the best of the best. 

4 years later, I still have little doubt that Joe Burrow can play QB at Ohio St. And I’m sure the coaches concur. So, did the coaches make the right move here or should they have done everything in their power to keep Joe Burrow on this roster? That’s the million-dollar question.

After signing Burrow in 2014, Ohio St signed another good QB in the following recruiting class. Strange how Ohio St does that, huh? And like Burrow, Dwayne Haskins didn’t come to Columbus to ride pine. Following JT Barrett’s departure after the ‘17 season, something had to give in the spring of ‘18.  

In mid August of last year, I really thought Joe Burrow would be that guy to replace JT in ‘18. But his hand injury changed things. I still thought Burrow would eventually assert himself as the heir to OSU’s QB throne, but the Michigan game made me think otherwise. Haskins had steel nerves and made plays on the biggest stage there is the very first time that he had ever stepped onto that stage.

But Joe Burrow wasn’t going out without a fight, and I responded to Colin’s pre-Spring game questions telling him not to write-off Joe Burrow just yet. Then Burrow probably outplayed Haskins in the spring game. Still, there were other signs that seemed to point to this being Dwayne Haskins’ team.

Burrow looked great throwing the ball…he always does. But more often than not, Burrow was by himself on the bench when the camera zeroed in on him. Maybe I’m overanalyzing, but the opposite was the case with Haskins, who was involved with seemingly everybody on the sidelines. 

After the scrimmage, Burrow did get props from Nick Bosa after his long TD throw to end the game. But still, when the players sang Carmen Ohio afterward, it was Haskins next to Urban in the front row, while Burrow was in the third row of players. 

In the post-game interview, it was not the Dwayne Haskins that was often grinning from ear to ear in 2017; he was all business. I thought the kid displayed a bit of cockiness….the kind of cockiness you want in your quarterback.

Again, maybe the “this being Dwayne’s team” feeling was reading way too much into this, and the 29 additional practices in August that have yet to occur would have ultimately decided this QB thing. But I don’t think so. 

Joe Burrow is pretty damn good, but I think Haskins’ is probably better and has a higher ceiling. With Haskins’ cannon for an arm, his game in Ann Arbor last November, and him appearing to fill a leadership void, I think Haskins had to get the first shot in ’18 ahead of Burrow.

It would surely be nice to have Joe Burrow stepping in this season if Haskins went down or didn’t cut the mustard after all. But despite being arguably the best coach in college football, these QB controversies appear to be Urban’s kryptonite.  

The situation with having the 3 high-profile QBs in 2015 was not handled well, to say the least. Fast-forward to the 2018 spring game – Burrow and Haskins rotate at  QB….on the same drives…on every drive. After the game, Haskins tolds reporters that this wasn’t just a spring game deal….that this rotation on the same drive was the way it was done throughout spring practice. I mean….really? That doesn’t sound like 2015 all over again….it sounds worse….it sounds ridiculous. 

Again, it’s pretty clear Joe Burrow can play quarterback at Ohio State…that’s never been the question. But there’s a good chance that Burrow’s transfer may translate into a better things for Joe, Dwayne, Urban and this 2018 Ohio State team.

If Burrow becomes a star at his next school, that wouldn’t shock me at all. I hope it happens. But this won’t be the last Buckeye QB to transfer knowing he will be appreciated more elsewhere. It is what it is in big time college football today, and having depth at QB will continue get less and less common.

--Brent Baver

The Spring Game, the QBs and “If you were Urban…” - Baver Answers Colin’s Questions

Follow @baverbuckeyebag and listen for him on the CD1025 Morning Show with Brian Phillips.

Colin: Do spring games tell you anything? I mean, if they did…wouldn’t Bam Childress have ended up with a couple of Heismans?

Baver: Indeed…..ha. You don’t get much from these things. The halftime races and QB throwing contests they have now are often more entertaining than the actual scrimmages. But I do like to see the freshmen that arrived early and those frosh that redshirted the prior year, at least to see what they bring to the table athletically. And it’s nice to see the Buckeye QBs in scrimmage action, especially if they haven’t played much. And to be honest, I think that watching Bam Childress go off once a year in April was actually pretty cool.

Colin: If you were Urban, would you tell Ohio boy Joe Burrow he has no shot and have him transfer or lead him on as insurance?

Baver: I really don’t think that’s the case….that Burrow has no shot. I think Burrow was likely your #2 guy before his hand injury last August. But Haskins held his own in mop time, and more than held his own leading OSU to the comeback win in Ann Arbor. And there are whispers that Haskins has the backing of the rest of the team more so than Burrow. So I agree Haskins has the leg up, but Burrow is the more accurate of the two, and will do more with his legs than Haskins will. But to try to answer your question, I don’t think anyone outside of the coaches’ room will know of Urban’s pecking order at QB anytime soon. If Burrow transfers, he may end up at Nebraska or even worse, heading 4 hours north of us to play, and playing immediately. UM would be a longer shot with them likely getting a waiver for Shea Patterson to play this fall, but it’s not out of the question….and Urban is well aware of that.

Colin: How does Tate Martell play into the QB equation?

Baver: I see almost no way Meyer names Tate Martell the #1 guy, as he risks having Burrow and Haskins both transfer. They can probably satisfy Tate by promising him legit playing time, and in packages with Haskins or Burrow on the field with him at the same time. I do struggle seeing Tate as a true #1 QB at OSU at any point in his career. He is much smaller than two other guys he is being compared with – Johnny Football and Baker Mayfield. But Tate appears to be a gamer and a guy that can cause college defenses a lot of problems if you utilize him the right way. The kid is going to see quite a few snaps this fall, and not just playing the mop-up roll.

Colin: Seems like a lot of question marks on this team…at least for a team you expect to win 11+ games every year. What’s your gut telling you about this ’18 team?

Baver: Urban has had the Buckeyes, at a minimum, on the playoff bubble each of the four years the CFP has been around. I fully expect them to be there again.  With the last two recruiting classes, Urban and co. are on the verge of stockpiling talent at every position the way Bama has done it for years. I haven’t said that in the past, as I always considered Bama a clear cut above the rest in talent level (and everything else for that matter). But you are right, there are a lot of questions. Replacing both OTs and a Remington Award winning center is rough. Tons of talent at linebacker, but not sure who will be manning any of the three specific LB positions come September. There was a clear drop-off after Denzel Ward at corner last year, and now he’s gone. Again, plenty of talent there but no proven star, and no tutelage from Kerry Coombs anymore. Still, Ohio St will be fine at QB and WR, and are loaded at running back. They also, of course, have another elite D-line. This team should go 10-2 or 11-1, and maybe make another legit run

What OSU Players May Leave Early? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: What are your thoughts on the CFP final four? Did they get it right?

Baver: I don’t have a huge beef with it. Would Bama have gotten the nod if they weren’t Alabama”? Probably not. Did Ohio State deserve the nod over Bama for the last spot? You can certainly make a decent case for it. But when you lose by 31 pts to unranked Iowa, you made your own bed. The thing I hate the most is the “choosing the BEST team” argument. If you take that argument literally, Bama is in the playoff every year, and is your #1 seed in that playoff every year. Hell, a 9-3 Bama team would still get in, while a 12-1 Wisconsin team with a similar strength of schedule would not. It’s complete hogwash that this is a so-called focus point of the committee.

Colin: Did JT's performance in the Big Ten title game hurt the Buckeyes chances to leap frog Alabama?

Baver: I think OSU winning by less than a TD did indeed hurt them, and JT certainly wasn’t himself against Wisconsin. His ability to move laterally was diminished big time, and I am not sure he throws those picks if he were healthy. The Iowa game aside, JT does not throw many picks. The guy is a warrior and deserves major praise for playing 6 days after surgery. I didn’t think he could pull it off.

Colin: Was this Buckeye team, with JT starting capable of winning a rematch with Clemson and how damaging would another bad loss be to the 2018 Buckeye chances of getting into the CFB?

Baver: I honestly think they could have beaten any of the other three teams, had OSU edged Bama for the last spot. Ohio St could have also lost to any of the three. And a healthy JT woud have been OSU’s best option to beat Clemson, Georgia or Oklahoma. You would have gotten a much better showing out of Ohio St if they had a playoff rematch with Clemson. As for part two of your question….no doubt about it. The committee had Clemson’s 31-0 beat down of the Buckeyes last year in the back of their mind, when they chose Bama over Ohio St.

Colin: There is now an early signing period starting on DEC 20th. How does this affect OSU and what do we need to know about the upcoming class?

Baver: Ohio State currently has 17 verbal commitments. Here is the breakdown: 9 recruits have said they “will” sign early; 3 say they will “likely” sign early; 3 are undecided; and 2 say they will sign in February. There isn’t a lot of shakeout from this new rule with OSU’s class or any other big program’s class…at lease not yet. It will be interesting to see what happens with those who don’t sign early.

As for this OSU class, it’s the top rated class in the nation right now. Urban and his crew have been machines on the recruiting trail the past two years, more so than before when their recruiting was “merely” elite. They may lose 4-star QB prospect Emory Jones. But the verbal commitment the Bucks just got from 3-star QB Matthew Baldwin would ease that loss a bit. Baldwin looks like a major diamond in the rough, and might end up being a better college QB than Emory Jones.

Colin: On a similar note, what Buckeye players should leave early for the draft and/or possibly sit out the Cotton Bowl to avoid one final risk of injury before finally getting paid to put their bodies on the line? 

Baver: It appears no one is sitting out the Cotton Bowl. Someone told me that game is meaningless. Tell John Cooper that (most) bowl games are meaningless, and he’ll probably be on the phone to Andy Geiger shortly thereafter. Sitting out bowl games is a double-edged sword, in my opinion. But leaving after your 3rd year is usually an NFL prospect’s best choice. Eight OSU guys might forego their 4th year: Weber, Campbell, Dixon, Prince, Dre’Mont Jones, Hubbard, Baker, and Ward. Hubbard and Ward are almost certainly out the door. Dre’Mont is likely gone too. I’d put the over/under at 5, in terms of the # of Buckeyes leaving with eligibility left on the table. Maybe I stay one more year if I’m Isaiah Prince. If I am any of the other 7 guys, I’d probably be leaning toward leaving.

Baver Previews "The Game" Part One. And Apple Cup?

Colin: How devastating was Michigan's loss to Ohio State last year? 

Baver: Extremely. Michigan fans will be talking about the JT 1st down spot years from now, much like the ‘Canes fans, who are still talking about the interference call in the 2002 Title game. Michigan had that game and gave it away. It wasn’t a first down spot that cost them the game….the majority of that loss is on the shoulders of one Jim Harbaugh. Why did he have a QB with concrete feet throwing out of his own end zone on 1st down, late in the first half in a game that Michigan was dominating? Then, you have Jimmy’s unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that helped the Buckeyes put 7 key pts on the board late in the 3rd quarter. It was Michigan’s day, and they let it get away. Not sure those North of the border will ever get over it.

Colin: How big would a win this year be for Harbaugh?

Baver: The Michigan so-called faithful are losing faith quickly. A win over Ohio State would help calm down the masses, at least for a bit. A loss means a long off-season, with Hairball dropping to 1-5 vs his chief rivals, Ohio State and Sparty. We’ll talk more about Jimmy’s offense on Friday, but the UM fans have about had it. I think they have faith that the defense will be good to great as long as Don Brown hangs around, but Harbaugh’s offense is laughable….and it is indeed HIS offense. Harbaugh desperately needs his offense to step up and desperately needs a win in this rivalry.

Colin: The Bucks have already clinched the Big Ten East and have a date with undefeated Bucky Badger. Any chance this team lays an egg like the Iowa loss?

Baver: After the Iowa game, I think we now know that about anything is possible. I don’t know if it would be laying an egg…I mean….is Ohio State that much better than Wisconsin? Or maybe I should ask, are they better than Wisconsin? That will be a tough game, especially coming off The Game against Michigan. 5 Dimes sportsbook has a current line on the game, and they have the Buckeyes favored by 6 ½. I think the B10 title game will be a dogfight, no matter how The Game with Michigan plays out.

Colin: You have been going on air with Brian Phillips and the CD1025 Morning show all season. Brian is a huge Cougs fan and this Apple Cup is shaping up to be a doozy. Any thoughts on that game?

Baver: With key injuries at the cornerback spots for the Huskies this season, they are going to have a tough time containing Washington St’s air attack. And Wazzu is off a bye. The Cougs have bounced back after losing 2 of 3 to finish October, posting solid wins against Stanford and Utah the last 2 weeks. But Wazzu hasn’t gotten a win in the Apple Cup since their OT victory in 2012, losing the last 4 gms by an avg of 23 pts per game. And WSU has to travel to Seattle for this one. It’s hard not to like Washington here but if you’re playing the spread, I think you take the Cougs and the 9 pts. I think the game will be decided by a touchdown, maybe less.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and tell us what other games this weekend you will be keeping an eye on?

Baver: 18-15 against the spread on the year. Oklahoma has been known to lay eggs here and there when they are big favorites. Will they lay one this week against West By God? Probably not, but I’ll still take the 22 ½ pts the Mountaineers are getting in Norman…a few too many to be laying against a decent WVU squad, I think. Auburn is a solid team and may hang with Bama most of the way, but I will still take the Tide almost 100% of the time if they are laying less than a TD. I like Bama minus the 4 ½ at Auburn.

OSU-Michigan prediction coming Friday.