Spring Training Is Almost Here! Reflections on the 2019 World Series and Why It Meant So Much To Me - by JCE

(editor’s note: This blog is our THIRD baseball upload of the past week from various Pencil Storm contributors. Obviously nobody could WAIT for the Super Bowl to be over so they could indulge their Boys of Summer proclivities. Cabin fever RULES!)

Well, the NFL season has been put to bed and now it’s time for March Madness and then baseball. With that in mind, I wanted to reflect just a little bit on the 2019 MLB season. I was born in Washington, D.C. and raised in the suburb of Alexandria, Virginia. When I was about 6 or 7 years old my cousin Eric introduced me to baseball card collecting. I remember whenever my cousin was visiting from his home outside Philadelphia, we would spend time at my grandmother’s apartment, which was really close to a 7-11 store. She would buy us gobs of Topps baseball cards at ten cents a pack. We would spend hours trading our “doubles” and building our collections. I remember the first goal was for me to get all the Washington Senators, and Eric was collecting the Philadelphia Phillies. Most of these memories were 1970-71, which I know because I still have all those baseball cards---the 1970 cards have a gray border and the 71’s are black. The black ones look great with the red in Senators’ uniforms.

1970 Topps Frank Howard

1971 Topps Ted Williams (manager)

It was about that time that the Senators packed up and moved to Texas to become the Texas Rangers. I was heartbroken. My Dad (RIP) took me to RFK Stadium to see the Senators a number of times. My best friend John who lived down the street once caught a Frank Howard home run ball. I loved that team, even though they lost most of the time. With my team gone, I vowed not to root for the Rangers, and due to the fact that my favorite player in baseball was Carl Yastremski of the Boston Red Sox, I declared that the Red Sox would be my team from that point forward. The San Diego Padres threatened to relocate to D.C. only a season or two later, and I have a Topps baseball card that reflects that, but it never happened. If it had, I would have abandoned the Sox and rooted for my hometown team again.

an interesting card… $6.85 on ebay if you want one

I faithfully rooted for yet another losing team for the next 33 years until Boston finally broke through in 2004, winning the fall classic after winning the American League in a miracle comeback against the hated Yankees. I watched every playoff and World Series game in 2004 and it was worth the loss of sleep. I was elated over my Sox finally winning. I was 41 years old and it was the only time my team had ever won in baseball. My sister (RIP) went to school in Boston and got me to Fenway park once. That is a special memory, like my Dad and RFK Stadium. Since then the Sox have taken the title three more times, in 2007, 2013 and 2018. But those next three Red Sox wins were not as sweet for me. Why? Well because even though I still pull for Boston to win the American League pennant every year, in 2005 Washington, D.C. got baseball back. Naturally, I had to declare my true allegiance to my hometown Washington Nationals. They may have taken a couple of seasons to win me over, but they did.

Which brings me to 2019. After 14 years in town, and after some big playoff failures, the Washington Nationals brought a World Series title to D.C. for the first time since the 1924 Senators. Again, I stayed up late, watching my team pull off miracle after miracle to win the Series. When it was done, I had a feeling that exceeded even the 2004 Red Sox title.

I count myself lucky that without being a bandwagon jumper, I was able to root with all my heart and soul for two of the most improbable World Series champions—the 2004 Boston Red Sox and the 2019 Washington Nationals. I don’t expect to win another one in my lifetime, but that’s fine. I got this one, and it means a lot to me.

Now it’s time for pitchers and catchers to report!

Stats Prove Jobu Took Fear From the Astros Bats - by Colin Gawel

author’s note: The following story is my attempt to summarize/plagiarize the story: “Does electronic sign stealing work? The Astros’ numbers are eye-popping” by Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris, which was recently published at The Athletic.com.  I am going to justify this by suggesting that you should subscribe and read the whole story. It’s my favorite sports website by a long shot. (Click here to visit)

A brief refresher, the 2017 Houston Astros won the World Series. Turns out they were illegally stealing signs with a combination of a closed-circuit TV, trash can bangs and electronic buzzers. 

So you ask, “What is the big deal about stealing signs?” 

Two quotes to explain that:

“Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing.” - Warren Spahn 

“Straight ball, I hit it very much. Curve ball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come take fear from bats. I offer him cigar and rum.” - Pedro Cerrano 

Now imagine if Jobu could have told Cerrano in advance when a breaking pitch was coming? Pedro could simply take the pitch and wait for a fastball. And avoid striking out. It’s not always what you swing at, it’s what you DON’T swing at. 

A couple highlights from The Athletic story….

In 2016, Astros hitters struck out 1,452 times. That’s the 8th highest total in the history of baseball. 

In 2017, Astros hitters struck out 1,087 times. 

In one year they went from striking out at one of the highest rates in history to a team that struck out less than any other team that season. Is this normal? According to the friendly nerds at Stats Inc., this sort of thing has happened exactly……never. At least since the live ball era started in 1920. In fact, no other team in history has come within 80 strikeouts of doing it. 

Stats also found the 2016-17 Astros were the only team in 100 seasons to cut their strikeout rates by more than two strikeouts per game in one year. 8.96 to 6.71. Home strikeouts dropped from 744 to 502. The Astros reduced their strikeouts at home by 83, more K’s than the next-closest team in the last 100 years. 

OK, we get it, Jobu was helping bats very much. How does this affect my fantasy baseball team?

Who suddenly stopped swinging and missing at breaking balls from 2016-2017?

Marwin Gonzalez, incredibly, went from a 40 percent swing rate to just 10 percent.

Carlos Correa 27 - 15;

Jake Marisnick 30 - 13;

George Springer 18 - 12;

AND according to Tony Adams at signstealingscandal.com, these four players combined for the highest percentage of trash-can bangs with Gonzalez leading the way with 147 bangs during his at bats. 

Evan Gattis has a career strikeout percentage of 22.5. In 2016 it jumped to 25.5. In 2017, it dropped to just 15.4. Only five players in the history of baseball have had that kind of turnaround. 

Some good news, despite the fact Jose Altuve inexplicably moved UP in the box against Aroldis Chapman before crushing an off-speed pitch for the series winning-home run. And even more inexplicably was completely obsessed with keeping his jersey on during the post game celebration, there is little evidence he benefited much from Jobu during the regular season. His bats weren’t afraid. 

His numbers are pretty normal unless you count that trash can thumping can only be heard during 2.8% of his at-bats. That would be an outlier for the 2017 “champion” Astros. 

You get the idea and I’ve got to get back to serving coffee. Why not subscribe to The Athletic and read the whole thing? It’s worth your time. 

Colin Gawel founded Pencilstorm and clearly has WAY too much time on his hands at Colin’s Coffee. 

MLB Cheating is a Crying Shame - by Scott Goldberg

I guess there is no crying in baseball—however what the Astros did is a crying shame. They cheated and won and mostly got away with it.  Alex Cora took what he learned to the Red Sox and won there—he learned cheating pays. He is now out of a job as is the Astros manager and GM.  The punishments aren’t severe enough.

I believe sports mirror the society we live in.  I can’t help but see parallels to our current political climate.  How politicians have placed party above country. How being honorable and moral are less important than winning.  How the ends justify the means. Is it any wonder baseball players, managers and front offices have placed team ahead of the game.  There is no honor in what these teams accomplished nor should there have been any glory. Doing irreparable harm to the game you espouse to love in the name of competing is a disgrace.  MLB cannot deal too harsh a penalty. Whatever is done is not enough.

I must admit I haven’t followed this travesty closely.  It’s too disturbing. I haven’t delved into all the underlying numbers.  I do know the Astros (and I assume the Red Sox) hit exceedingly better at home than on the road.  I know Clayton Kershaw underperformed in his outing at Minute Maid Park and the narrative became more about his inability to dominate in the playoffs (i.e. he’s choking).  Pretty unfair when the other team knows what pitch is coming through no fault of his own.

All sports have some form of deceit.  Soccer and basketball players flop, football players will have mysterious injuries to stifle their opponent’s momentum, and of course there is legitimate sign stealing in baseball.  There is a line in all sports. Sometimes that line is blurry. What the Astros and presumably the Red Sox did obliterate any sense that a line even exists.

I don’t totally know what to make of it.  I think about my upcoming fantasy draft. Are players like Bregman, Altuve and Betts still worthy of first round picks?  I am so disgusted, I’m not sure I want to participate in fantasy baseball at all this year. A baseball boycott seems a reasonable response for fans whose trust in the integrity of the game has been stolen.

I have been a Cleveland Indians fan for my entire life.  World Series appearances can be counted on one hand; wins---nada and I was born in the same year as the Super Bowl.  There is nothing I want more in sports than for the Indians to win a World Series. I am not sure how I would feel if the Indians finally won only to discover they cheated to do so.  Euphoria to disgust. I am not sure I could forgive the game.  

I know to some my reaction may seem overblown.  I actually feel the opposite. Sometimes I feel like a hypocrite watching football when I see players heads getting smashed and I know they are risking significant brain injury.  I get it that they know the risks at this point, but if fans like me stop watching revenue goes down and thus the incentive to risk brain injury goes down as well. How do I go back to watching baseball and thereby implicitly forgive behavior I really have no interest in forgiving?  Frankie Lindor’s smile will suck me back in, but I am warning you Baseball you’ve got two strikes. 

The Major League Baseball Post Season: Wild Card Round - by Brian Phillips

6pm EST October 2: AL Wild Card Line ups/Rosters out. Thoughts below.

After a year of record setting dingers, another high water mark in strikeouts, and embarrassing futility at the bottom of the American League we’ve reached baseball’s post season. Now the game changes. (For instance the Yankees don’t get to play the Orioles any more.)

One thing we’ll recognize is the creative deployment of pitching staffs. Openers aren’t just for the Rays any more. With all their injuries the Yankees were even doing it fairly often as the season wore on. It’s no accident that the A’s, Rays, and Brewers all made it to October. They’ve been leaders in how bullpen arms can be dispatched at any time and more efficiently. They’ve also been brutally honest in accepting what their starters can and cannot do. When Milwaukee got red hot (after losing Christian Yelich no less!) their starters were lucky get two trips through an opponents order.

We’ll be adding to our coverage here as we move through the playoffs. We’ll start with Tuesday and Wednesday’s Wild Card match ups. Remember! It’s one game. Win or go home.

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

Tuesday October 1

Brandon Woodruff (11-3 3.62) vs Max Scherzer (11-7 2.92)

Woodruff was just returning from injury in September so don’t expect him to go any longer than the first three. The Brewers would be happy to let him wind it out 100% one time through the order. After that we’ll likely see an improving Jordan Lyles for a couple of frames followed by blow away closer Josh Hader at most any time. Without Yelich the Brewers have to keep this close. I don’t like them against a power righty like Scherzer. They can strike out at a high clip. Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain are dinged up already, and not good against righties.

The key to beating Scherzer is hunting for home runs. He will give them up. If you can grab a walk or a cheap hit, a bomb or two can be lingering behind those. Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas, and impressive rookie Keston Hiura will be looking to jump a Scherzer heater. The X-factor is young lead off hitter Trent Grisham. He’s had his moments this season.

As for the Nationals, this is an impressive line up. Keep an eye on two hole hitter Adam Eaton. He’s quietly pumped up his power profile the last couple of months. With Trea Turner in front of him, and mashers Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto and the always reliable Howie Kendrick 3, 4, and 5 this is a club that can jump out to an early lead and sit on it.

Washington’s biggest weakness is it’s bullpen, but with an all or nothing Wild Card game it’s all hands. If Scherzer runs into trouble (and he has had back trouble this season) we could see Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin both appearing.

I like the Nats at home, but this is baseball. These Wild Card games can be strange.

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A’s

Wednesday October 2

Charlie Morton (16-6 3.05) vs Sean Manaea (4-0 1.21)

With all the above about bull penning we might just have to forget all that when we look at this pitching match up. Morton has been great all year, and on paper any way he should be able to navigate an A’s team that sees most of their thump come from the right side of the plate. That said, when Morton has struggled (and that’s not very often) it’s been on the road. Oakland will put the ball in play so I don’t expect Morton to just mow them down.

As for Manaea he returned from injury late in the season and looked very good. His underlying numbers don’t quite add up to a sterling 1.21 ERA, but the A’s have to be pleased with what that they’ve seen. Given a choice you’d rather start a good lefty against Tampa if only to mitigate stud outfielder Austin Meadows a bit. (Why the Pirates traded him I have no idea.)

6pm EST: Rosters And Line Ups Now Out

The biggest surprises come on the Tampa side. Former Indian Yandy Diaz is leading off and playing first. He was out for weeks with a bum foot and only returned at the end of the year to DH. The Rays must feel he’s ready to go, and Diaz is certainly a plus glove if he’s healthy. One time Columbus Clipper Jesus Aguilar is also on the roster if Diaz doesn’t hold up. Rookie Michael Brosseau starts at second and bats 9th over Daniel Robertson. He’s shown some pop against lefties this year. If need be Joey Wendle is a good choice to pinch hit and play second or third should the A’s go to a righty. I can’t wait to see left handed hitter Matthews face Manaea. Should be fun to watch.

The Rays have 10 pitchers on the roster tonight and in case Morton falters I like them to look at Ryan Yarbrough before Blake Snell. Snell’s injury marred 2019 had him coming back displaying some of his old wildness. Tyler Glasnow could certainly give them three solid innings as well.

Over on the Oakland side Bob Melvin is opting for experience over interesting rookies. Robbie Grossman bats 8th in left over Seth Brown. Jurickson Profar hits 6th at second over Sheldon Neuse. Four of the first five hitters hit from the right, but all are dangerous. If I had a vote for AL MVP it may well have gone to Short stop Marcus Semien, who has had an amazing all around year. Matt Olson is the biggest power danger for Morton in the four hole. DH Khris Davis has had hand problems all year, and just hasn’t been himself. Still, he’s got that lightning strike power.

Oakland has tapped 11 pitchers for this game. Perhaps this is an acknowledgement that Manaea is not that far removed from a long IL stint. Jesus Luzardo recently returned from suspension. If a long man is needed they could well turn to him.

I like Oakland at home 5-4.

Strange and Bold MLB Predictions, 2019 - by Brian Phillips

The best day of the year is here! Opening Day! The Pencilstorm staff will be hunkered down at the world famous Bier Stube on High in time for 1 pm first pitch. Last year they had free hot dogs too!

Before the 2019 season unfurls itself over the next six months allow me to get some strange and bold predictions down:

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Three years after a World Championship the 2004 D-Backs won just 51 games. The 2019 Arizona club won't be quite that putrid, but they won't win more than 65 games either.

Atlanta Braves

Weary of his weak bat the Braves bench and then demote Dansby Swanson by June in favor of Johan Carmargo.

Chicago Cubs

With his bum shoulder healed Kris Bryant returns to his MVP form hitting over .300 with 32 plus bombs and 110 plus RBI.

Cincinnati Reds

Often compared to Joey Votto for his superior plate skills, a healthy Jesse Winker logs an all-star campaign and ends up with across the board better numbers than the Reds' first baseman.

Colorado Rockies

With his new plate approach Ryan McMahon hits his way to an NL Rookie Of The Year award.

Los Angeles Dodgers

A broken down Clayton Kershaw only makes 10 starts for the Dodgers.

Miami Marlins

Trevor Richards makes 33 starts and finishes top 10 in Cy Young voting.

Milwaukee Brewers

Realizing Mike Moustakas is a terrible second baseman the Brewers rush #1 prospect Keston Hiura to the show by mid summer.

New York Mets

Oft injured outfielder Yoenis Cespedes does not play in a single 2019 game.

Philadelphia Phillies

Shifted to death, and spooked by his mega contract, Bryce Harper is booed mercilessly when he finishes April hitting .160.

Pittsburgh Pirates

His efforts to elevate the ball paying off, Josh Bell launches 27 home runs.

San Diego Padres

With an exciting influx of great young talent and behind newly signed Manny Machado, the Padres contend into September for a playoff spot.

San Francisco Giants

The Yankees see Greg Bird injured again, and Luke Voit is exposed with every day at bats. New York swings a deal with the Giants to acquire Brandon Belt for prospects. Belt hits 15 home runs for the Yankees in August and September.

St. Louis Cardinals

In the thick of the playoff hunt the Cards realize they can no longer afford to have Dexter Fowler in the every day line up. Fowler is DFA'd and Tyler O'Neill becomes an outfield regular.

Washington Nationals

While Bryce Harper struggles all season young phenom Juan Soto is in the running for NL MVP.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

The Vegas over/under is 59.5 at last check. This club will win no more than 40 games.

Boston Red Sox

Going into the season without an established closer the Sox turn to David Price by the All Star break.

Chicago White Sox

Eloy Jimenez has a better year than Vlad Jr and wins the AL Rookie of the Year.

Cleveland Indians

Finding themselves 5 games back of the Twins at the deadline the Tribe ship Corey Kluber to the contending Padres for outfield prospects.

Detroit Tigers

For the Tigers it's a long year, but a mostly healthy Miggie makes one last run at a batting title.

Houston Astros

Justin Verlander misses two months after injuring his back having sex with wife Kate Upton.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals run so much Billy Hamilton is only third on the team in steals as he loses playing time with his continued struggles at the plate.

Los Angeles Angels

A shell of his former self and with Justin Bour enjoying a surprisingly productive season, Albert Pujols is DFA'd and asked to take a position in the front office. Refusing that offer he is traded to the Cardinals for a single A relief pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

The surprising Twins win the AL Central by five games over the Tribe and then lose four straight to the Astros in the division round. A healthy Justin Verlander pitches a shut out in game one.

New York Yankees

Miguel Andujar's defense becomes such a liability that the Yanks ship him back to triple A and acquire Kyle Seager from the Mariners.

Oakland Athletics

Never able to get their ragged pitching staff right the A's finish third behind the Astros and Angels.

Seattle Mariners

In a wholesale sell-off Seager isn't the only one traded. Edwin Encanarcion and Jay Bruce are also dealt for prospects.

Tampa Bay Rays

Fueled by young stars Blake Snell, Brandon Lowe and Willie Adames along with a career year from Tommy Pham, the Rays take the second wild card and shock the Red Sox in the wild card game.

Texas Rangers

Joey Gallo reaches a new career high in batting average by hitting .212.

Toronto Blue Jays

With the collective bargaining agreement looming and players concerned about a possible salary cap, Vladimir Guererro Junior signs a ten year $200 million dollar deal with the Jays.

I'm Begging MLB to Start Postseason Games Earlier - by Colin Gawel

Ok baseball, let’s try a new approach. Every year I complain that my son and myself cannot stay up and watch the end of the MLB playoffs. And every year you complain “Why are TV ratings down again and why are we losing kids to other sports?”

So instead of writing yet another article after the fact ( MLB Playoffs, Set DVR for Midnight! - I Can Save the World Series) I’m going to drop all that logical Freakonomics thinking and just beg you to give it a shot this year. Just do it for us. We are loyal fans who plan our summer vacations around seeing baseball parks. My son is now 15 years old and he has seen the end of exactly one World Series game. It won’t be long until he moves out of the house and I’d really like a chance to enjoy some Father/Son time watching our favorite sport play some meaningful games. In case you are wondering, we have watched the end of EVERY Super Bowl together and that is our 5th favorite sport. ( MLB, NBA, College Football, NCAA Basketball). How can this be?

Ok, I lied, maybe a little bit of logical thinking.

The Super Bowl kicks off at 6:30 pm.

Last year the World Series started games at 8:20 (except game one and two at 8:09)

The Games finished at these times:

Game One 10:39pm

Game Two 12:28 am

Game Three 12:06 am

Game Four 11:26 pm

Game Five 1:37 am (!!)

Game Six 11:44 pm

Game Seven 11:57 pm

I encourage you to look at those ending times again. That is insane.

The AVERAGE length of an MLB Postseason game is 3.5 hours. (click here for the study)

Oh, and those exciting 2017 one game wildcard games finished at 11:51 pm and 12:02 am. Both on week nights too. (editor’s note: the 2018 NL Wildcard game on Tuesday Oct 2 finished at 1:10 am)

“But why aren’t more kids watching baseball??”

Look MLB, there are lots of reasons the sport is losing ground (and many involve Fortnite) but having the most exciting moments of a mostly non-exciting sport play out while most every kid is asleep doesn’t seem to be working. Maybe it’s time for a fresh approach? If the Rays can go 20 games over .500 getting rid of using a starting pitcher for half the season, you can expand your thinking too.

You haven’t announced the post season TV schedule yet. There is still time to do me and my son this solid. My proposal is this: All playoff games East of the Mississippi start at 7:09 EST. And if I were commish, I would have all World Series games start the same time as the Super Bowl kicks off: 6:30 Every Single Game.

Colin Gawel founded Pencilstorm and banged out this rant while serving customers at Colin’s Coffee. He also wrote a nifty baseball song called Dad Can’t Help You Now.