The NBA’s final four is set to be underway with the second-seeded Boston Celtics hosting the eighth-seeded Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference while the Western Conference’s number one seed Denver Nuggets play the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers. Either parity is here in the NBA or injuries and trades made such a difference that the regular season didn’t really matter.
It’s a rematch of last year’s East finals and a repeat of the same final four from the 2020 “Bubble” year. Not that that means much being two and a half years ago with rosters also very different. The one takeaway probably though is that these franchises have done well enough to stay relevant over those few years. Each of these teams split the season series versus the other with the exception of the Celtics-Lakers which saw Boston take both games in overtime thrillers.
Before I dive into previewing both series though, here’s some questions from our esteemed and dear readers.
In your opinion, what teams have been the biggest disappointment of these playoffs so far?
In no particular order, the Bucks, the Cavs, and the Suns. The Bucks were the one seed and getting upset cost them their championship-winning coach. Phoenix also lost their coach and this very well could have been Chris Paul’s last run with that team. Will he ever get another shot at a title as he finishes his 18th year?
The Cavs first-round loss was tough because the team just didn’t seem prepared enough to play. If the Cavs played like they have in stretches of this season, it could easily be them facing the Celtics in the conference finals. The Grizzlies and Kings losses were understandable based solely on the level of greatness they were up against in LeBron and Curry.
What playoff losing coaches (Hint: Bickerstaff) need replacing (Hint: Cleveland’s) and who is available?
There’s actually a veritable coaching bonanza out there. Lots of well-established coaches appear to be available after some teams surprisingly let go of theirs. We’ve got the likes of Nick Nurse, Monty Williams, and Mike Budenholzer not attached to any teams with whispers that the likes of Doc Rivers, Steve Kerr, Tyronn Lue, Mark Jackson, and Isiah Thomas may be available, the latter rumored to be an interest of the Suns. I still think Jay Wright makes excellent sense in Philadelphia while there’s several top assistants and other former players and coaches that make intriguing options.
It all makes the Cavs decision to retain J.B. Bickerstaff all the more interesting. Cleveland’s promising young core makes the Cavaliers one of the most attractive teams to coach. Bickerstaff has not proven that he is the guy to take them to the top. Will the organization’s seeming loyalty to him set the franchise back or can Bickerstaff make adjustments to his coaching in time for next year?
Do the Lakers have a chance to slow down Jokic or is it hopeless for any team?
Because of how Anthony Davis has been playing defense as of late and how much of a basketball genius LeBron is, maybe there’s a way the Lakers figure out how to disrupt his game. But up till now, no one’s really been able to and he’s just gotten better.
I talk about it more in my series preview below but the Lakers might do better to let Jokic score at will but disrupt his passing and playmaking as much as possible. The key might be to focus on his teammates and not let them get going because the Joker is always going to get his.
Does Tatum have that dog in him..or not?
Yes, Tatum has that dog in him. He’s one of the Kobe disciples, young players inspired by the Black Mamba mythos, modeling their games after the guy who carbon-copied Michael. The guy also just turned 25 two months ago!
Tatum has actually played in exactly 87 playoff games and has a 49-38 record. He’s averaged 23.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He has a 10-5 record in playoff series and will be making his fourth Eastern Conference Finals in a six-year career. That dude has all the dog.
Why aren’t more people making a big deal about the NBA Draft Lottery this Tuesday?
I feel this is the most monumental one in decades. Probably since LeBron. Like Victor Wembanyama could end up being the best basketball player we’ve ever seen just because his skill set and physical makeup are just unprecedented. I would have just expected a lot more discourse and antics about which team might end up with that franchise-altering first pick.
Detroit, Houston, and San Antonio have the highest odds and I’m going to say something I didn’t think I had in me. I will actually go on record to say I hope the San Antonio Spurs get the first overall pick because that just might be the best spot for that kid. Then again, it’s possible Victor and four starters from Florida Atlantic could win the East in two years.
#2 Boston Celtics (8-5) vs. #8 Miami Heat (8-3) Playoff records in parentheses
You’ve just got to give it up to the Heat organization for finding themselves in this position yet again. The eighth and last team to clinch a playoff spot and they find themselves four wins from the Finals for the third time in four years. You can always point to Giannis missing games opening the door for them but such a talented top-seeded Bucks team should have made more of a series of it. Probably the key to the Bucks getting rid of Budenholzer.
The Heat come into Game 1 Wednesday night with some rest and perhaps the most dangerous man in these playoffs, Jimmy Butler III ready to wreak havoc and seek vengeance for last year’s heartbreaking Game 7 loss.
The Celtics come in as the current favorites to win it all., not just the East. They did take seven games to beat a Doc Rivers coached Sixers team but Boston may be rounding into form. Jayson Tatum scored an all-time NBA record for most points in a Game 7 with 51. He and Jaylen Brown have been ascending levels this postseason and will soon play in their 4th and 5th Eastern Conference Finals respectively.
With the turmoil of the offseason involving an internal scandal with former coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics showed they have the same grit that separates both these squads in their conference. Team culture and organizational excellence are hallmarks for both of these franchises and this will just be the latest faceoff between “The Godfather” Pat Riley and “The Prodigy “ Brad Stevens.
Okay, got the hot air out of my system. It’s all about whether Miami can shoot its way back from any deficits they may find themselves in. Kyle Lowry will need to continue his resurgence and Jimmy Butler is going to have to do his all. It will be interesting to see who will guard him primarily. With how much Butler has yet again proved these playoffs, I see potential matchups with Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum to try and contain him.
On the other end, the Celtics can easily tire Miami out. Their wing pressure and talent can create issues for the Heat but they have arguably the best head coach in the league in Erik Spoelstra so the right adjustments will be made. This one’s tough to call cause I really believe Miami can pull off the upset. This could be a fascinating series.
But I got Celtics in 7
#1 Denver Nuggets (8-3) vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers (8-4) Playoff records in parentheses
In the West, it’s the top overall team versus the seventh seed that rescued their season from 13th place just before the trade deadline. The Lakers weren’t supposed to be here. But they’re here now and they scare the hell out of every remaining team. Even with a 38-year-old 20th season LeBron on only one good foot, the Lakers are the best defensive team left and pose matchup problems for all.
The Nuggets, however, have not been fazed one bit these playoffs and have played better overall than any other team. They’ll see if their playoff-leading offense will be enough against Los Angeles. The Lakers will need to figure out what to do with the possibly best player in the world.
If it were up to me, I’d rather let Jokic score a lot of points by himself than get a bunch of his teammates involved. The best basketball is played when there’s movement and passing and everyone on the team is invested with effort. It’s what makes Denver the best team in basketball in my opinion. When Jokic has all his teammates involved in a flow and a groove, they are the greatest team in the sport.
I wouldn’t double Jokic early on and probably wouldn’t even have AD guard him, at least the first few quarters. AD can play off and roam around the rim and help on Jokic if he gets to be too much. But also, the more Jokic is scoring, the less his teammates are getting involved and that could take away a usual Denver edge.
Of course, that’s much easier said than done. Nothing has really been found to stop Jokic. Lakers backup center Mo Bamba is out for Game 1 and his status for the series is up in the air with an ankle injury. The Lakers may not have any viable options other than Davis to put on Jokic.
It’s so bad Tristan Thompson might get screen time. It will be interesting to see exactly how the Lakers do end up matching up with him. Sticking with AD on him raises the risk of AD getting in foul trouble and wearing down on the offensive end. But having him attack Jokic on the offensive end might do the inverse.
Of course, if all else fails, the Lakers have LeBron who just keeps going and going. He came back late in the season but earlier than expected from a severe foot injury that had been bothering him since January and he definitely doesn’t seem 100%. He’s been masterful however at conserving his energy and playing his best in the biggest moments and giving his team exactly what they need at the right moment.
Quite incredible that in year 20 he’s still looming so large over the Finals. It’s going to be incredibly hard to go against his genius and championship will. But I think there might be a new best player in the world and I’ll stick with the best team I’ve seen this year having it all come together.
The pick is Nuggets in 7.