Colin: After three games, what do you think Ohio State has figured out and what questions still remain heading into the prime time match up with Notre Dame?
Baver: The team has a clear-cut QB now, and one that has gained some confidence to boot. Whether Ryan Day knew all along that Kyle McCord was his guy is debatable, but McCord has come along nicely over three games, regardless. Still, it doesn’t appear that Ohio State has played a top-70 team in the country yet. So it’s hard to make any definitive judgements on what Day and company have figured out before tomorrow night. But a couple things here….
It does look like TreVeyon Henderson has his mojo back, and the coaches have plenty of options to spell him. But, he’ll need the guys in the trenches in front of him to keep progressing. Will they? That is one of your questions that still remains, I think. Looking at the popular SP+ opponent-adjusted ratings, you’ll find Western Kentucky’s defense currently ranked #122 out of 133 FBS teams nationally. Not the greatest of measuring sticks to say the least.
I think most Buckeye fans figure Ohio St’s biggest challenge is holding Irish QB Sam Hartman in check, while at least being able to contain RB Audric Estime, the nation’s leading rusher. This has been the OSU defense’s storyline (solid defending the run, poor defending the pass) in past seasons. Though, I think the questions as to where this year’s defensive strengths lie are also ones that still remain after facing three weak opponents.
Colin: Last season, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles rolled the dice by blitzing Michigan and Georgia in key moments with disastrous results. Will we see a return to this aggressive approach Saturday or can the Buckeye D Line generate pressure by itself? Is the secondary up to the challenge if left on an island?
Baver: Great question. With the results against UM specifically last November, forgive me from being gun-shy here. Hartman is a QB that they are going to have to be cautious with. This Buckeye defense is loaded with future NFL draft picks. There will be more guys drafted from this OSU D than they’ve had drafted in any one year in recent memory. Sure, they will need to work in more blitz packages than we’ve seen so far, but they are facing the best transfer QB in the nation, and one that is in his 6th collegiate season. They can’t go completely bland, but I think Knowles will be careful here, especially with the individual talents he has on this defense.
I do think Denzel Burke has made more strides than maybe any other Buckeye since the ‘22 season. He’s a guy that you can likely count on in man-coverage against ND. As for the other cover guys, Igbinosun and Hancock? They’ve been solid so far, but the quality of QB and O-line they are now facing is about as good as it gets. It will be interesting to see how much trust that Knowles shows that he has in those two guys.
Colin: What are realistic expectations for QB Kyle McCord in the first major road test of his career?
Baver: I could see the game playing out in a number of different ways… One where McCord throws for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs…. Or possibly in another low scoring game (similar to last season’s), where McCord maybe throws for 190 yds and 1 TD in a Buckeye victory. The Buckeyes are just a 3-point favorite right now, after some books at times had OSU as double-digit favorites months ago. Hartman taking command of the Irish offense so quicky has raised the stakes here. I’d say the only expectation for McCord is to quarterback the winning team. Let people complain it wasn’t pretty, but I’ll take a “W”.
Colin: It looks like a three-headed race with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State right now to win the Big Ten East and the whole conference, for that matter. Is that how you see it? And does Penn State have a legit shot to win the league?
Baver: Yes and yes. While I think you’ll see these teams get pushed at times by middle-tier Big Ten teams, it’s still a big drop-off from these three to Iowa and Wisconsin. Iowa still has offensive problems and Wisconsin is in a transition year, completely overhauling their offensive identity. Penn State is as good as they’ve been since 2016…maybe since 2005. I really think any of the head-to-head/round-robin matchups between these three teams could go either way. We’ve already seen a strange start to the 2023 season, and things will continue to be quite interesting in my opinion.
Colin: You mentioned the OSU-ND game possibly playing out in different ways, but give us your one biggest key to this game, along with your prediction.
Baver: If the Buckeyes end up on the short end of the stick, I think Hartman and Estime will both play big roles for Notre Dame. And I tend to think that the Buckeye offensive tackles will have their ups and downs tomorrow night, and that their ability to protect Kyle McCord is the biggest key to this game. While McCord will probably take some sacks, I see him hitting Harrison, Egbuka, & Stover for enough big plays that may prove too much for Notre Dame to overcome. OSU’s defense vs Notre Dame’s offense overall I think will be quite the battle. But like the offense, I think the Buckeye defense will again make the bigger plays. I’ve got it Ohio St 31 Notre Dame 27.
Let’s get this thing on.