Turn that gambling podcast off. You don’t have to sift through all those cold takes. Pencilstorm has you covered with Friday Bet$ For Realz. Every Friday this fall we will be posting actual bets being made by Pencil Storm staffers and friends. Remember the best bet is to never bet at all. On the other hand…winners play and player’s win. Let’s do this!
Big $ (Pencil Storm Browns Beat Writer with The North Coast Posse)
Ok, every gambler knows the good times do not last. Thus, I knew my o-fer was right around the corner. That's why we stack units to keep live bullets. On and upward with a fat card this week (23-12-2 on the year).
Friday pick: SMU rolls - team over 41.5 -125.
Saturday: Hell hath no fury like a gambler spurned, F Nebraska, take Maryland -2 . -110.
Kansas is a team I've been waiting to ride - Jayhawks -4 , -105.
Deion can do a lot of things, stopping PAC12 offenses has not been one’, Arizona team over 32.5, -120
I see points in Washington - over 49.5 , -115.
I think OK st hobbles after the lackluster bedlam, UCF +2.5, -110
Fading the public on this Lane Train v UGA under 58.5 , -110
Good Luck, fade or tail
OMG (Baller, sharp)
Lions -2.5
Cowboys -16.5
Colin Gawel (Pencil Storm Founder, Musician, Coffee Shop Owner)
Achtung! I am not an actual gambler. I throw small numbers around and bet purely for entertainment value.
I was off the past two weeks opening the new Colin’s Coffee and with some gig stuff but I’m back and ready to continue losing the $365 free dollars I got from Bet 365. I’m down to $283.
Some quick numbers.
Last year Michigan inexplicably held CJ Stroud and the Ohio State offense to just 3 points in the 2nd half and 23 overall.
Both teams made the final four.
Michigan then even more inexplicably gave up 51 points and lost to TCU and scrub QB Max Duggan in what was by far the easiest Big Ten matchup of the four team playoff era. How?
The same night, Ohio State faced the top ranked Georgia Bulldogs boasting one of the best defensive units in recent memory giving up only 14.27 points per game and 141 yards passing. Ohio State lost 42-41 but QB CJ Stroud threw for 348 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
In the title game, Georgia beat TCU 65-7 holding QB Max Duggan to 152 yards and two interceptions.
Just last week, former Buckeye QB, now playing for the Houston Texans threw for a rookie record 470 yards and 5 TD's to defeat the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Wow. That sure was some impressive effort Michigan put up against Ohio State. On the road too. How did they do it? It boggles the mind. These numbers don’t make any sense when taken in context. One of these games was not like the other.
And,looking at it with fresh eyes, last year’s PSU v UM game was very fishy too. Michigan was just a 4 1/2 favorite but won 41-17. Penn State’s run defense came into the game ranked #1 averaging just 60 ypg and gave up, gulp, 418 yards on the ground. Ain’t that something? I also found it very interesting Michigan scored 40 or more points for five straight Big Ten games for the FIRST TIME IN PROGRAM HISTORY. Yup, not even BO accomplished this feat. Hmm…very odd indeed… no wonder Vegas and the FBI started asking questions about Michigan…
Having said that, I like the Michigan D to smash hapless Penn State QB Drew Aller in Happy Valley this Saturday at noon. Maybe if it were a whiteout I would think twice taking the Wolves to cover, but with the early kick and how terrible the Nittany Lions looked facing OSU in Columbus, I’ll take Harbaugh and the blue crew to cover this one easily. Though the days of 400 yards rushing left when Conor Stalions was let go from the UM staff. Going to have to play it straight in 2023.
* I changed my mind. F Harbaugh. Penn State Moneyline.
And I will take the fearsome Oregon Ducks -15 versus fading USC in Eugene. Just by the eye test, I would say Oregon is the 2nd best team in the country behind Georgia. (Yes, I know they lost to Washington)
Jeremy Porter (Musician, fast-food Mexican connoisseur, terrible gambler, Pencil Storm Co-Editor in Chief)
I’m on a bit of a roll, not to brag, at least with my Bet$ for Realz picks. Hit them both again last week. My non-Pencil Storm picks haven’t been nearly as successful, but here’s where it counts!
NCAAF: Ballsy pick by Colin picking Penn State with the money line. That’s betting with your heart (and house money) and not your brain! All respect and love to our leader here at Pencil Storm and to the state to the south (who just impressed with mostly-great election results) and the over-achieving Nittany Lions, but Michigan -4.5 is as good a bet as I’ve seen in a LONG time. Even if they lose it’ll still be a good bet in hindsight. I’ll add the over 45.5 to that to make it interesting at +260, but I’ll also bet the spread alone -110, it’s that appealing. I’m totally jinxing it here, if I believed in such things. <um, ok, just got the news on the suspension. Yikes! Sticking with my bets!>
NFL: The Eagles have been very good to me this year, but they’ve got a bye this week. Lions -3 against the Chargers is tempting, but as good as they are, us battered long-time fans are still weary. I like the MNF Bills against the spread in Buffalo against the struggling Broncos, but I’ll wait `til Monday to lay that down. Sorry again, my Ohio friends, but I gotta take the Ravens over the Browns, -6.5, parlayed with the low over (38.5) and Gus Edwards to score a TD. That’s a healthy +450 bet there. A little risky, but it’s just money. Right?
Jeff Hassler (Pencil Storm webmaster) Baker got robbed last week by CJ Stroud. If only Baker could play D Baby! He probably would be an all pro linebacker if he wanted. I’ll take the Bakerman -1 vs the Titans this weekend and give me the over at 39 too.
Ben Galli (Pencil Storm NBA Beat Writer)
Picks: Iowa -1.5 over Rutgers: This is a historic game, wouldn’t ya know. It’s the lowest over/under in NCAA history (28), well at least since 1995 when they began being tracked (I’m sure the first ever Rutgers-Princeton game was lower). But that wager is fool’s gold mainly because it’s Iowa and they almost always find a way to let you down. But they also usually end up squeaking by in dumb games. And this is gonna be one of the dumbest. Iowa will win by at least two.
Giants +17.5 over Cowboys: I don’t care if your quarterback is Danny DeVito, 17.5 for an intradivision game is umm, something. Yeah the Cowboys destroyed them in New York, okay New Jersey, 40-0 in week 1. Even more reason for the Giants to man up and play for pride. I just don’t see last year’s Coach of the Year, Brian Daboll letting his team get blown out. Also, don’t forget, the Cowboys are still the Cowboys, always ready to disappoint at a moment’s notice.